Inter vs Fiorentina Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 11:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.34
Draw
5.71
Away Win
8.57
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Inter
Fiorentina
65'
⚽ Álex Jiménez (Nicolo Fagioli)
70'
🟨 Viery
Marcus Thuram (Andy Diouf) ⚽
90+1'
90+5'
🟨 Víctor Valdepeñas Talavera
Piotr Zieliński ⚽ (P)
90+7'
90+11'
🟨 Domilson Dodo
Match Statistics ?
63%
Ball Possession
37%
33
Total Shots
7
11
Shots on Goal
2
6
Corner Kicks
1
13
Fouls
14
0
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
3
1
Goalkeeper Saves
9
Starting Lineups
Inter (3-5-2)
I. Provedel
Y. Bisseck
M. Akanji
A. Bastoni
A. Diouf
N. Barella
H. Çalhanoğlu
H. Mkhitaryan
Carlos Augusto
M. Thuram
F. Esposito
Fiorentina (4-3-3)
David de Gea
Álex Jiménez
R. Drăgușin
M. Pongračić
Valde
C. Ndour
N. Fagioli
M. Brescianini
Franco Mastantuono
Mateo Pellegrino
A. Njie
Player Ratings ?
Inter
M. ThuramF8.2
P. ZielińskiM7.8
A. DioufM7.7
Fiorentina
N. FagioliM7.4
Álex JiménezD7.3
David de GeaG7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Inter
Inter rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Inter an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Inter stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Inter stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Inter stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Inter stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Inter arrive with a perfect record in their last five home outings, while Fiorentina have recorded just two wins from five away fixtures. The Nerazzurri have found the net in every one of their last five home matches but have managed only two clean sheets during that same period. Both squads face significant rotation challenges ahead of kickoff, with Inter having six players unavailable and Fiorentina carrying seven out of their potential line-up. Inter rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 22 March 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 13-day comparison window, Inter's implied win probability has risen by 1.0 percentage points, while Fiorentina's implied win probability has fallen by 0.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Inter.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Inter unbeaten run
15
Inter points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Inter
Inter's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Inter win as more likely than it did 13 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Inter win
Latest market chance 69.8%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
68.8% → 69.8%
+1.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 17.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
18.6% → 17.9%
−0.7 pts
Fiorentina win
Latest market chance 12.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
12.5% → 12.3%
−0.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Inter
Draw
Fiorentina
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
InterFiorentina
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
18th
7
Games Played
7
2.71
Points/Game
0.57
3.00
Goals/Game
1.14
1.29
Conceded/Game
2.43
21.3
Shots/Game
16.9
6.9
Shots on Target
5.1
Home vs Away Context
Inter at home (7 matches) vs Fiorentina away (6 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
1.00
3.14
Goals/Game
1.83
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.33
100%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Inter
Home form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight at home
3.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Fiorentina
Away form
W
L
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Inter Wins
3
Draws
1
Fiorentina Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.4
Fiorentina1 – 1Inter
Inter3 – 0Fiorentina
Inter2 – 1Fiorentina
Fiorentina3 – 0Inter
Fiorentina0 – 1Inter
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Intervs
Fiorentina
Recent Scoring Profile
3.00
Goals scored / game
1.20
1.30
Goals conceded / game
2.00
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
0/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 65.6%→Latest 67.8%+2.2 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.7%→Latest 56.9%+0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
1 of Inter's 10 matches and 2 of Fiorentina's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?