Genoa vs Milan Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Luigi Ferraris
Sun 08 Nov 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
4.74
Draw
3.54
Away Win
1.85
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Genoa
Milan
13'
⚽ Alphadjo Cissè (Adrien Rabiot)
19'
⚽ Christian Pulisic (Gonçalo Ramos)
28'
🟨 Sankhoun Diawara
Alessandro Marcandalli 🟨
50'
50'
🟨 Adrien Rabiot
76'
🟨 Christian Pulisic
87'
🟨 Mario Gila
Mikael Ellertsson (Tommaso Baldanzi) ⚽
88'
Kingsley Ehizibue 🟨
90+4'
Match Statistics ?
38%
Ball Possession
62%
17
Total Shots
6
5
Shots on Goal
2
3
Corner Kicks
0
14
Fouls
13
2
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Genoa (3-4-2-1)
J. Bijlow
A. Marcandalli
L. Østigård
J. Vásquez
K. Ehizibue
S. Wiafe
H. Traorè
M. Ellertsson
Junior Messias
Vítinha
M. Osmajić
Milan (3-4-2-1)
M. Maignan
Mario Gila
K. De Winter
S. Bocoum
Diego Moreira
L. Modrić
A. Rabiot
Y. Musah
C. Pulišić
A. Cissè
Gonçalo Ramos
Player Ratings ?
Genoa
L. ØstigårdD7.1
M. EllertssonM7.0
J. VásquezD7.0
Milan
C. PulišićM8.1
A. RabiotM7.4
A. CissèM7.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Milan
Milan rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Milan a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Milan stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Milan stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Milan slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Milan stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Milan have secured two wins and three draws from their last five away fixtures, while Genoa remain unbeaten at home with four victories and a single draw in that same span. Genoa have found the net in all five of their recent home matches but have managed just two clean sheets during that period. One Genoa player is currently unavailable for selection ahead of this Serie A fixture. Milan rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. Milan won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 17 May 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Genoa's 0, with 3 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 6-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison gives Milan a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Genoa losing run
13
Genoa points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 6 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Genoa win
Latest market chance 20.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
20.9% → 20.8%
−0.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.6% → 27.0%
+0.4 pts
Milan win
Latest market chance 52.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
52.5% → 52.1%
−0.4 pts
10 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
GenoaMilan
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
5th
10
Games Played
10
1.30
Points/Game
2.10
1.00
Goals/Game
2.10
1.40
Conceded/Game
1.20
11.7
Shots/Game
11.5
3.1
Shots on Target
4.5
Home vs Away Context
Genoa at home (8 matches) vs Milan away (6 matches)
1.62
Points/Game
2.00
1.25
Goals/Game
1.67
1.38
Conceded/Game
1.00
50%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Genoa
Home form
D
W
W
W
W
Won 4 straight at home
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Milan
Away form
W
D
D
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 away
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Genoa Wins
0
Draws
3
Milan Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.8
Genoa1 – 2Milan
Milan1 – 1Genoa
Genoa1 – 2Milan
Milan0 – 0Genoa
Milan3 – 3Genoa
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Genoavs
Milan
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
2.10
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.20
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
2/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 45.6%→Latest 45.5%−0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 48.5%→Latest 48.4%−0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?