Frosinone vs Lecce Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
PSC Arena
Thu 29 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.75
Draw
4.27
Away Win
4.34
Match Report
Full Time
5 – 1
Match Events ?
Frosinone
Lecce
Matteo Cichella (Farès Ghedjemis) ⚽
25'
38'
🟨 Tiago Gabriel
Giacomo Calò ⚽ (P)
45+1'
51'
🟨 Oumar Ngom
Antonio Raimondo (Giorgi Kvernadze) ⚽
59'
Daniel Birligea (Romano Schmid) ⚽
72'
79'
🟨 Jamil Siebert
82'
⚽ Joel Almada Monteiro (Olaf Gorter)
Daniel Birligea (Giorgi Kvernadze) ⚽
90+4'
Match Statistics ?
60%
Ball Possession
40%
26
Total Shots
15
9
Shots on Goal
6
10
Corner Kicks
3
10
Fouls
17
0
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
4
Offsides
0
5
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Frosinone (4-2-3-1)
L. Palmisani
A. Oyono
G. Calvani
I. Monterisi
A. Terzić
G. Calò
Matteo Cichella
F. Ghedjemis
R. Schmid
G. Kvernadze
A. Raimondo
Lecce (3-4-2-1)
W. Falcone
J. Siebert
Tiago Gabriel
C. Ndaba
Danilo Veiga
Y. Maleh
O. Ngom
A. Gallo
O. Gandelman
Joël Monteiro
Paco Esteban
Player Ratings ?
Frosinone
G. KvernadzeM8.6
D. BîrligeaF8.4
A. RaimondoF8.2
Lecce
Joël MonteiroM7.2
A. Ahmed FatahF6.7
Paco EstebanF6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Frosinone edge recent form and attack, Lecce edge head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Frosinone slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Frosinone stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Lecce stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Frosinone have secured four wins from their last five home outings, while Lecce have managed three victories in their last five away fixtures. At home, Frosinone have scored in four of their last five matches but have only kept one clean sheet during that same period. There is one player out for Frosinone, whereas Lecce face a heavier challenge with three absentees and two players listed as doubtful. Frosinone rate stronger on attack, with a slight advantage in form, while Lecce rate stronger on head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 3 March 2024, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. Over the 8-day comparison window, Frosinone's implied win probability has risen by 7.1 percentage points, while Lecce's implied win probability has fallen by 4.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Frosinone
Frosinone's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Frosinone win as more likely than it did 8 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Frosinone win
Latest market chance 55.2%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
48.4% → 55.2%
+6.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.9%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
25.9% → 22.9%
−3.0 pts
Lecce win
Latest market chance 21.9%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
25.8% → 21.9%
−3.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Frosinone
Draw
Lecce
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 8 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
FrosinoneLecce
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
14th
8
Games Played
8
1.75
Points/Game
1.13
2.12
Goals/Game
1.12
1.62
Conceded/Game
1.75
20.1
Shots/Game
12.1
6.8
Shots on Target
4.6
Home vs Away Context
Frosinone at home (7 matches) vs Lecce away (6 matches)
2.57
Points/Game
1.17
2.86
Goals/Game
1.17
1.14
Conceded/Game
1.67
86%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Frosinone
Home form
L
W
W
W
W
Won 4 straight at home
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Lecce
Away form
W
W
L
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Frosinone Wins
0
Draws
2
Lecce Wins
3
Avg Goals
1.8
Frosinone1 – 1Lecce
Lecce2 – 1Frosinone
Lecce1 – 0Frosinone
Frosinone0 – 0Lecce
Frosinone0 – 3Lecce
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Frosinonevs
Lecce
Recent Scoring Profile
2.10
Goals scored / game
1.30
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.60
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
3/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 58.7%→Latest 67.5%+8.8 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.8%→Latest 66.0%+5.2 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
2 of Lecce's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?