Fiorentina vs Atalanta Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Artemio Franchi
Thu 29 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.32
Draw
3.70
Away Win
3.01
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Fiorentina
Atalanta
12'
🟨 Elif Elmas
Viery 🟨
30'
41'
⚽ Charles De Ketelaere (Nicola Zalewski)
Mateo Pellegrino 🟨
51'
Alieu Njie (Álex Jiménez) ⚽
53'
João Mário (Alieu Njie) ⚽
61'
74'
⚽ Nicola Zalewski (Charles De Ketelaere)
Wilfried Gnonto 🟨
75'
83'
🟨 Relja Obric
Match Statistics ?
60%
Ball Possession
40%
26
Total Shots
10
4
Shots on Goal
5
8
Corner Kicks
2
10
Fouls
13
3
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Fiorentina (4-3-3)
David de Gea
Álex Jiménez
R. Drăgușin
Viery
João Mário
C. Ndour
N. Fagioli
M. Brescianini
Franco Mastantuono
Mateo Pellegrino
A. Njie
Atalanta (4-2-3-1)
M. Carnesecchi
D. Zappacosta
T. Kristensen
R. ObriÄ
L. Bernasconi
G. Gaetano
Éderson
E. Elmas
C. De Ketelaere
N. Zalewski
N. Krstović
Player Ratings ?
Fiorentina
A. NjieF8.8
Álex JiménezD7.8
João MárioD7.5
Atalanta
N. ZalewskiM8.8
C. De KetelaereM7.8
J. RoweF6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Atalanta edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Atalanta stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Atalanta slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Atalanta stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Atalanta have recorded just one win and a draw from their last five away fixtures, while Fiorentina remain winless in three of their four losses during this same span at home. Fiorentina have scored in four of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of those same outings. Squad availability is a concern for both sides, with Fiorentina facing six confirmed unavailable players alongside one doubtful and Atalanta having ten confirmed unavailable squad members. Atalanta rate stronger on form and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack, while defence is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 22 May 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 8-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Fiorentina losing run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
2
Fiorentina points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from the draw
the draw's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a draw as less likely than it did 8 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Fiorentina remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Fiorentina win
Latest market chance 41.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
41.1% → 41.7%
+0.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.2%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
27.0% → 26.2%
−0.8 pts
Atalanta win
Latest market chance 32.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
31.9% → 32.2%
+0.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Fiorentina
Draw
Atalanta
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 8 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
FiorentinaAtalanta
Season Profile
This season
19th
League Position
12th
8
Games Played
8
0.50
Points/Game
1.25
1.12
Goals/Game
1.75
2.38
Conceded/Game
1.88
16.9
Shots/Game
14.4
5.1
Shots on Target
5.4
Home vs Away Context
Fiorentina at home (6 matches) vs Atalanta away (5 matches)
0.50
Points/Game
0.80
1.17
Goals/Game
1.20
2.17
Conceded/Game
1.80
0%
Win Rate
20%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Fiorentina
Home form
D
L
L
D
L
Winless in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Atalanta
Away form
W
D
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Fiorentina Wins
2
Draws
1
Atalanta Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.0
Fiorentina1 – 1Atalanta
Atalanta2 – 0Fiorentina
Fiorentina1 – 0Atalanta
Atalanta3 – 2Fiorentina
Atalanta2 – 3Fiorentina
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Fiorentinavs
Atalanta
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
1.80
2.20
Goals conceded / game
1.70
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.3%→Latest 60.2%+4.9 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.0%→Latest 62.5%+3.5 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
1 of Fiorentina's 10 matches and 1 of Atalanta's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?