Cagliari vs Bologna Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Unipol Domus
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.11
Draw
3.04
Away Win
2.62
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 2
Match Events ?
Cagliari
Bologna
32'
🟨 Federico Bernardeschi
Zé Pedro 🟨
38'
Roberto Gagliardini 🟨
55'
57'
⚽ Nicolo Casale (Juan Miranda)
Alessandro Deiola 🟨
77'
80'
⚽ (P) Federico Bernardeschi
Match Statistics ?
57%
Ball Possession
43%
4
Total Shots
10
1
Shots on Goal
5
1
Corner Kicks
6
25
Fouls
13
3
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Cagliari (4-3-2-1)
E. Caprile
Zé Pedro
A. Deiola
J. Rodríguez
A. Obert
A. Romano
H. Winks
M. Adopo
Y. Massolin
D. Maldini
P. Mendy
Bologna (3-4-3)
Ł. Skorupski
M. Darmian
N. Casale
A. Theate
N. Zortea
L. Ferguson
T. Pobega
Juan Miranda
F. Bernardeschi
J. Odgaard
N. Cambiaghi
Player Ratings ?
Cagliari
J. RodríguezD6.9
E. CaprileG6.9
Y. SugawaraD6.8
Bologna
N. CasaleD8.4
F. BernardeschiF7.7
M. LibraM7.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Cagliari edge recent form, Bologna edge head-to-head, attack and defence are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Cagliari stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Bologna stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Cagliari have secured two victories and a draw from their last five home outings, while Bologna have managed three wins in two losses across their away fixtures during the same period. The hosts have found the net in three of their last five matches at this venue but have only kept one clean sheet in that identical timeframe. Six players are unavailable for Cagliari compared to three absentees from Bologna, with neither squad carrying any doubtful figures ahead of the fixture. Cagliari rate stronger on form, while Bologna rate stronger on head-to-head, while attack and defence are closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 3 May 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 12-day comparison window, Cagliari's implied win probability has risen by 1.5 percentage points, while Bologna's implied win probability has fallen by 1.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Cagliari
Cagliari's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Cagliari win as more likely than it did 12 days ago. Bologna remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Cagliari win
Latest market chance 31.1%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
29.6% → 31.1%
+1.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 31.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
31.5% → 31.5%
±0.0 pts
Bologna win
Latest market chance 37.4%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
38.9% → 37.4%
−1.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Cagliari
Draw
Bologna
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CagliariBologna
Season Profile
This season
8th
League Position
15th
7
Games Played
7
1.86
Points/Game
0.71
0.86
Goals/Game
0.86
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.43
10.9
Shots/Game
13.6
4.0
Shots on Target
4.5
Home vs Away Context
Cagliari at home (5 matches) vs Bologna away (6 matches)
1.40
Points/Game
2.00
0.60
Goals/Game
1.67
0.80
Conceded/Game
1.00
40%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Cagliari
Home form
L
W
L
W
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Bologna
Away form
W
W
L
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Cagliari Wins
1
Draws
1
Bologna Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.0
Bologna0 – 0Cagliari
Cagliari0 – 2Bologna
Bologna2 – 1Cagliari
Cagliari0 – 2Bologna
Cagliari2 – 1Bologna
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Cagliarivs
Bologna
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.60
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
3/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 43.9%→Latest 44.0%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 50.5%→Latest 51.1%+0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of Cagliari's 10 matches and 2 of Bologna's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?