Bologna vs Monza Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.71
Draw
4.02
Away Win
5.00
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Bologna
Monza
6'
⚽ (P) Gustavo Varela
12'
🟨 Ricardo Mangas
Jens Odgaard 🟨
17'
Tommaso Pobega 🟨
23'
Tommaso Pobega (Juan Miranda) ⚽
33'
58'
🟨 Lorenzo Lucchesi
Federico Bernardeschi ⚽ (P)
59'
Nadir Zortea 🟨
74'
76'
🟨 Idrissa Toure
81'
• Patrick Cutrone
Mikel Jesús Amondarain 🟨
90'
Match Statistics ?
60%
Ball Possession
40%
10
Total Shots
6
5
Shots on Goal
4
5
Corner Kicks
2
13
Fouls
19
4
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
4
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Bologna (3-4-2-1)
Ł. Skorupski
M. Vitík
N. Casale
A. Theate
N. Zortea
L. Ferguson
T. Pobega
Juan Miranda
F. Bernardeschi
N. Cambiaghi
J. Odgaard
Monza (3-4-2-1)
N. Törnqvist
E. Kouadio
S. Goglichidze
L. Lucchesi
S. Birindelli
M. Ondoa
L. Colombo
Ricardo Mangas
Dany Mota
E. Zeballos
Gustavo Varela
Player Ratings ?
Bologna
Juan MirandaM7.7
T. PobegaM7.2
M. VitíkD6.8
Monza
C. NgongeF6.7
Gustavo VarelaF6.6
P. CutroneF6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Bologna
Bologna rate stronger in recent form, defence and head-to-head; Monza edge attack, giving Bologna a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Bologna stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Monza slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Bologna stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Bologna stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Monza have drawn just once in their last five away outings while Bologna remain winless at home with two draws and three defeats across that same span. At home, Bologna have found the net in four of their last five matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that period. Bologna face three confirmed absences and two doubtful options, while Monza are dealing with two certain unavailabilities alongside two players listed as doubtful. Bologna rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while Monza hold a slight advantage in attack. Bologna won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 18 January 2025, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Monza's 1, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.6 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Bologna's implied win probability has risen by 1.6 percentage points, while Monza's implied win probability has fallen by 1.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Bologna a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Bologna
Bologna's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Bologna win as more likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Bologna win
Latest market chance 56.1%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
54.3% → 56.1%
+1.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.9% → 24.6%
−0.3 pts
Monza win
Latest market chance 19.4%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
20.8% → 19.4%
−1.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Bologna
Draw
Monza
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BolognaMonza
Season Profile
This season
11th
League Position
16th
9
Games Played
9
1.22
Points/Game
0.78
1.33
Goals/Game
1.78
1.33
Conceded/Game
2.44
13.6
Shots/Game
13.4
4.5
Shots on Target
5.5
Home vs Away Context
Bologna at home (6 matches) vs Monza away (6 matches)
0.83
Points/Game
0.17
1.17
Goals/Game
1.33
1.83
Conceded/Game
2.67
17%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Bologna
Home form
L
D
D
L
L
Winless in last 5 at home
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Monza
Away form
L
D
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Bologna Wins
2
Draws
2
Monza Wins
1
Avg Goals
1.6
Bologna3 – 1Monza
Monza1 – 2Bologna
Bologna0 – 0Monza
Monza0 – 0Bologna
Bologna0 – 1Monza
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Bolognavs
Monza
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
2.00
1.50
Goals conceded / game
2.20
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
3/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 53.8%→Latest 52.8%−1.0 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.7%→Latest 53.5%−1.2 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?