Atalanta vs Venezia Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
New Balance Arena
Mon 12 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.57
Draw
4.43
Away Win
5.77
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 1
Match Events ?
Atalanta
Venezia
Franck Kessié (Nikola Krstović) ⚽
4'
Nikola Krstović (Elif Elmas) ⚽
6'
18'
🟨 Matias Moreno
Nikola Krstović ⚽
30'
37'
⚽ Antoine Hainaut (Richie Sagrado)
42'
🟨 Juan Jesus
Elif Elmas 🟥
89'
Match Statistics ?
36%
Ball Possession
64%
22
Total Shots
19
11
Shots on Goal
4
8
Corner Kicks
7
14
Fouls
6
0
Yellow Cards
2
1
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
5
3
Goalkeeper Saves
7
Starting Lineups
Atalanta (4-2-3-1)
M. Carnesecchi
R. Bellanova
T. Kristensen
G. Scalvini
D. Zappacosta
F. Kessié
Éderson
E. Elmas
C. De Ketelaere
J. Rowe
N. Krstović
Venezia (3-5-2)
F. Stanković
R. Halhal
Juan Jesus
M. Moreno
A. Hainaut
Kike Pérez
S. Sohm
T. Bašić
Thierry Correia
J. Yeboah
A. Adams
Player Ratings ?
Atalanta
N. KrstovićF8.8
F. KessiéM7.8
E. ElmasM7.2
Venezia
A. HainautM7.9
F. StankovićG7.2
R. SagradoD7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Atalanta
Atalanta rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Atalanta an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Atalanta stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Atalanta slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Atalanta stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Atalanta stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Atalanta have secured two victories in their last five home outings, while Venezia remain winless with just two draws from their away fixtures over the same span. The Bergamo side have found the net in three of their last five matches at home but have also kept two clean sheets during that period. Atalanta face seven confirmed absences alongside one doubtful player, whereas Venezia are dealing with nine confirmed outcasts for this fixture. Atalanta rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. The most recent meeting, on 1 March 2025, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 14-day comparison window, Atalanta's implied win probability has risen by 4.2 percentage points, while Venezia's implied win probability has fallen by 1.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Atalanta.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Venezia losing run
2
Venezia points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Atalanta
Atalanta's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Atalanta win as more likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Atalanta win
Latest market chance 61.1%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
56.9% → 61.1%
+4.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.3%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
24.8% → 22.3%
−2.5 pts
Venezia win
Latest market chance 16.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
18.2% → 16.6%
−1.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Atalanta
Draw
Venezia
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AtalantaVenezia
Season Profile
This season
11th
League Position
20th
5
Games Played
5
1.20
Points/Game
0.00
1.00
Goals/Game
0.80
1.40
Conceded/Game
2.60
14.4
Shots/Game
13.7
5.4
Shots on Target
4.0
Home vs Away Context
Atalanta at home (7 matches) vs Venezia away (6 matches)
1.86
Points/Game
0.00
2.00
Goals/Game
0.67
1.71
Conceded/Game
2.17
57%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Atalanta
Home form
L
W
W
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Venezia
Away form
D
L
L
L
L
Lost 4 straight away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Atalanta Wins
4
Draws
1
Venezia Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.8
Atalanta3 – 1Venezia
Atalanta0 – 0Venezia
Venezia0 – 2Atalanta
Venezia1 – 3Atalanta
Atalanta4 – 0Venezia
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Atalantavs
Venezia
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.20
Goals conceded / game
2.40
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
3/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 15 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 59.1%→Latest 61.1%+2.0 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.5%→Latest 57.6%−0.9 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
4 of Atalanta's 10 matches and 4 of Venezia's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?