Atalanta vs Parma Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
New Balance Arena
Mon 02 Nov 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.53
Draw
4.65
Away Win
5.95
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 3
Match Events ?
Atalanta
Parma
41'
⚽ Giovanni Fabbian (Vincent Sierro)
47'
⚽ (OG) Davide Zappacosta
58'
⚽ Simone Lontani (Giovanni Fabbian)
Match Statistics ?
70%
Ball Possession
30%
20
Total Shots
6
6
Shots on Goal
3
8
Corner Kicks
5
8
Fouls
10
0
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
4
Offsides
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Atalanta (4-2-3-1)
M. Carnesecchi
D. Zappacosta
G. Scalvini
R. ObriÄ
L. Bernasconi
Éderson
Mario Pasalic
N. Zalewski
C. De Ketelaere
J. Rowe
N. Krstović
Parma (3-5-2)
G. Daffara
E. Del Prato
M. Troilo
D. Drobnic
S. Britschgi
G. Fabbian
V. Sierro
M. Keita
E. Valeri
E. Touré
S. Lontani
Player Ratings ?
Atalanta
R. ObriÄD7.1
J. RoweM6.8
ÉdersonM6.7
Parma
G. DaffaraG8.6
G. FabbianM8.3
S. LontaniF7.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Atalanta
Atalanta rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; Parma edge defence, giving Atalanta a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Atalanta stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Atalanta stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Parma slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Atalanta stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Atalanta enter this Serie A fixture at home with three wins and a draw from their last five outings, while Parma have suffered five consecutive defeats away from home. The Nerazzurri have scored in all five of their recent home matches but have only kept one clean sheet during that same period. Atalanta face eight confirmed absences alongside one doubtful selection, whereas Parma have just two players ruled out with no doubts surrounding their squad. Atalanta rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while Parma hold a slight advantage in defence. Atalanta won the most recent meeting 4-0 on 25 January 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Parma's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.4 goals per meeting. Over the 7-day comparison window, Atalanta's implied win probability has fallen by 3.4 percentage points, while Parma's implied win probability has risen by 2.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Atalanta a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Atalanta losing run
50%
Parma yellow cards after 75'
0
Parma points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Atalanta
Atalanta's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Atalanta win as less likely than it did 7 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Atalanta win
Latest market chance 63.0%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
67.1% → 63.0%
−4.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 21.0%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
20.1% → 21.0%
+0.9 pts
Parma win
Latest market chance 16.0%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
12.9% → 16.0%
+3.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Atalanta
Draw
Parma
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 7 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AtalantaParma
Season Profile
This season
13th
League Position
18th
9
Games Played
9
1.22
Points/Game
0.56
1.78
Goals/Game
0.56
1.89
Conceded/Game
1.67
14.4
Shots/Game
10.0
5.4
Shots on Target
3.2
Home vs Away Context
Atalanta at home (7 matches) vs Parma away (6 matches)
1.86
Points/Game
0.50
2.00
Goals/Game
0.83
1.71
Conceded/Game
2.00
57%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Atalanta
Home form
W
L
W
W
D
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Parma
Away form
L
L
L
L
L
Lost 5 straight away
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Atalanta Wins
3
Draws
1
Parma Wins
1
Avg Goals
4.4
Atalanta4 – 0Parma
Parma1 – 1Atalanta
Atalanta2 – 3Parma
Parma1 – 3Atalanta
Parma2 – 5Atalanta
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Atalantavs
Parma
Recent Scoring Profile
1.90
Goals scored / game
0.50
1.80
Goals conceded / game
2.00
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
1/10
Failed to Score
6/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.7%→Latest 59.4%+3.7 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 50.8%→Latest 54.7%+3.9 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?