Atalanta vs Frosinone Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
New Balance Arena
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.91
Draw
4.13
Away Win
3.78
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 4
Match Events ?
Atalanta
Frosinone
1'
⚽ Romano Schmid
7'
🟨 Gabriele Bracaglia
Nikola Krstović (Charles De Ketelaere) ⚽
14'
17'
⚽ Romano Schmid (Farès Ghedjemis)
28'
🟨 Giorgi Kvernadze
Éderson José dos Santos ⚽ (P)
33'
Nikola Krstović (Davide Zappacosta) ⚽
45'
48'
⚽ Giacomo Calò (Farès Ghedjemis)
Elif Elmas (Nikola Krstović) ⚽
50'
Éderson José dos Santos 🟨
69'
82'
⚽ Aleksa Terzić (Farès Ghedjemis)
85'
🟨 Aleksa Terzić
90+2'
🟨 Antonio Raimondo
Match Statistics ?
46%
Ball Possession
54%
22
Total Shots
24
9
Shots on Goal
10
8
Corner Kicks
9
7
Fouls
13
1
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
2
6
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Atalanta (4-2-3-1)
M. Carnesecchi
R. Bellanova
T. Kristensen
R. ObriÄ
D. Zappacosta
Éderson
G. Gaetano
E. Elmas
C. De Ketelaere
J. Rowe
N. Krstović
Frosinone (4-2-3-1)
L. Palmisani
A. Oyono
G. Cittadini
G. Calvani
G. Bracaglia
G. Calò
P. Masini
F. Ghedjemis
R. Schmid
G. Kvernadze
A. Raimondo
Player Ratings ?
Atalanta
N. KrstovićF9.4
E. ElmasM8.2
C. De KetelaereM7.0
Frosinone
F. GhedjemisM9.1
R. SchmidM8.7
G. CalòM7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Atalanta edge head-to-head, Frosinone edge recent form and attack, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Frosinone stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Frosinone slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Atalanta stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Atalanta have secured four wins from their last five home outings, while Frosinone have recorded two victories in as many away fixtures over a similar recent sample. Atalanta have scored in all five of their most recent home matches but have kept just one clean sheet during that same period. There are availability concerns for Atalanta, with ten players unavailable, whereas Frosinone face minimal issues with only a single player out. Frosinone rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in attack, while Atalanta rate stronger on head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Atalanta won the most recent meeting 5-0 on 15 January 2024, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Frosinone's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.4 goals per meeting. Over the 13-day comparison window, Atalanta's implied win probability has fallen by 7.5 percentage points, while Frosinone's implied win probability has risen by 6.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Atalanta losing run
12
Atalanta points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Atalanta
Atalanta's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Atalanta win as less likely than it did 13 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Atalanta win
Latest market chance 50.9%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
58.4% → 50.9%
−7.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
22.2% → 22.9%
+0.7 pts
Frosinone win
Latest market chance 26.2%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
19.4% → 26.2%
+6.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Atalanta
Draw
Frosinone
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AtalantaFrosinone
Season Profile
This season
11th
League Position
6th
7
Games Played
7
1.29
Points/Game
1.86
1.43
Goals/Game
1.86
1.57
Conceded/Game
1.29
14.4
Shots/Game
20.1
5.4
Shots on Target
6.8
Home vs Away Context
Atalanta at home (7 matches) vs Frosinone away (6 matches)
1.86
Points/Game
0.83
2.00
Goals/Game
1.33
1.71
Conceded/Game
2.00
57%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Atalanta
Home form
W
W
L
W
W
Won 4 of last 5 at home
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Frosinone
Away form
W
W
D
L
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Atalanta Wins
3
Draws
1
Frosinone Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.4
Atalanta5 – 0Frosinone
Frosinone2 – 1Atalanta
Frosinone0 – 5Atalanta
Atalanta4 – 0Frosinone
Frosinone0 – 0Atalanta
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Atalantavs
Frosinone
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.50
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
2/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 65.2%→Latest 71.4%+6.2 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 62.5%→Latest 70.1%+7.6 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
2 of Atalanta's 10 matches and 1 of Frosinone's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?