St Mirren vs Dundee Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
The SMiSA Stadium
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.30
Draw
3.73
Away Win
2.98
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
St Mirren
Dundee
Calvin Ramsay (Eseosa Sule) ⚽
20'
Eseosa Sule (Killian Phillips) ⚽
56'
Eseosa Sule 🟨
63'
Ismeal Kabia 🟨
71'
74'
⚽ Bradley·Fink
Luke Thomas 🟨
82'
84'
🟨 Alfie Harrison
Alexander Gogić 🟨
90+3'
90+3'
🟨 S. Pressley
90+3'
🟨 Bradley·Fink
90+3'
🟨 Brad Halliday
Match Statistics ?
49%
Ball Possession
51%
9
Total Shots
17
5
Shots on Goal
4
2
Corner Kicks
5
15
Fouls
11
4
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
St Mirren (3-4-3)
J. Chapman
M. Fraser
A. Gogić
Henry Fieldson
C. Ramsay
R. Carr
K. Phillips
D. John
L. Thomas
Eseosa Sule
Ismeal Kabia
Dundee (4-4-2)
O. Goodman
D. Wright
R. Astley
O. Bevan
I. Samuels
J. Bevan
C. Jones
E. Hamilton
A. Forrest
A. Hay
B. Fink
Player Ratings ?
St Mirren
Eseosa SuleF8.4
C. RamsayM7.6
K. PhillipsM6.9
Dundee
B. FinkF7.8
O. BevanD6.9
E. HamiltonM6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Dundee
Dundee rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Dundee a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Dundee stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Dundee stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Dundee stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Dundee stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Dundee have recorded two victories in their last five away outings, while St Mirren manage just a single win from their corresponding home sample. St Mirren have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have kept just one clean sheet during that same period. Dundee rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Dundee won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 2 May 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to St Mirren's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.6 goals per meeting. Over the 13-day comparison window, St Mirren's implied win probability has fallen by 3.5 percentage points, while Dundee's implied win probability has risen by 3.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Dundee a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from St Mirren
St Mirren's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a St Mirren win as less likely than it did 13 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
St Mirren win
Latest market chance 42.8%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
46.3% → 42.8%
−3.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.8% → 25.9%
+0.1 pts
Dundee win
Latest market chance 31.4%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
27.9% → 31.4%
+3.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
St Mirren
Draw
Dundee
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
St MirrenDundee
Season Profile
This season
8th
League Position
4th
9
Games Played
9
1.11
Points/Game
1.56
1.00
Goals/Game
1.44
1.89
Conceded/Game
1.11
12.1
Shots/Game
12.6
3.7
Shots on Target
4.5
Home vs Away Context
St Mirren at home (7 matches) vs Dundee away (6 matches)
1.14
Points/Game
1.00
1.14
Goals/Game
1.17
1.71
Conceded/Game
1.33
29%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
St Mirren
Home form
D
W
D
L
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Dundee
Away form
L
L
W
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
St Mirren Wins
1
Draws
1
Dundee Wins
3
Avg Goals
1.6
Dundee1 – 0St Mirren
St Mirren0 – 0Dundee
Dundee3 – 1St Mirren
St Mirren1 – 0Dundee
Dundee2 – 0St Mirren
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
St Mirrenvs
Dundee
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.20
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
3/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.7%→Latest 57.9%+3.2 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.8%→Latest 60.9%+3.1 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of St Mirren's 10 matches and 1 of Dundee's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?