Motherwell vs St Mirren Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Fir Park
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.86
Draw
4.00
Away Win
3.97
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Motherwell
St Mirren
Joe Hodge 🟨
38'
50'
🟨 Marcus Fraser
51'
🟨 Ryan Carr
Martin Moormann 🟨
60'
Lukas Fadinger ⚽ (P)
82'
86'
🟨 Alexander Gogić
Regan Charles-Cook 🟨
89'
Emmanuel Longelo 🟨
90'
90+1'
🟨 Samuel Antonio Ramos Linares
90+2'
🟨 Killian Phillips
Match Statistics ?
52%
Ball Possession
48%
11
Total Shots
5
2
Shots on Goal
1
6
Corner Kicks
3
17
Fouls
14
4
Yellow Cards
5
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Motherwell (4-2-3-1)
A. Paulsen
T. Sparrow
J. Girdwood-Reich
M. Moormann
M. Emmanuel
J. Hodge
L. Fadinger
Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise
I. Said
J. Kanga
S. Palmer-Houlden
St Mirren (3-4-2-1)
J. Chapman
M. Fraser
A. Gogić
Henry Fieldson
C. Ramsay
R. Carr
F. Taylor
L. Thomas
K. Phillips
P. Nsio
Eseosa Sule
Player Ratings ?
Motherwell
J. Girdwood-ReichD7.3
L. FadingerM7.2
A. PaulsenG7.2
St Mirren
Henry FieldsonD6.9
R. CarrM6.7
K. PhillipsM6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Motherwell edge attack and head-to-head, St Mirren edge recent form, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
St Mirren stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Motherwell stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Motherwell stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
St Mirren have secured two wins from their last five away outings, while Motherwell remain winless in all of their last five home fixtures. Motherwell have failed to score in any of their last five matches at home and have also kept zero clean sheets during that same run. St Mirren rate stronger on form, while Motherwell rate stronger on attack and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 30 August 2026, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.4 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Motherwell's implied win probability has fallen by 1.0 percentage points, while St Mirren's implied win probability has risen by 0.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
6
Motherwell losing run
52%
St Mirren yellow cards after 75'
0
Motherwell points from last 5 matches
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Motherwell
Motherwell's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Motherwell win as less likely than it did 5 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Motherwell win
Latest market chance 51.4%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
52.4% → 51.4%
−1.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.1% → 24.3%
+0.2 pts
St Mirren win
Latest market chance 24.3%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
23.5% → 24.3%
+0.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Motherwell
Draw
St Mirren
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MotherwellSt Mirren
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
7th
11
Games Played
11
0.82
Points/Game
1.27
1.18
Goals/Game
1.09
1.82
Conceded/Game
1.73
14.5
Shots/Game
12.1
4.9
Shots on Target
3.7
Home vs Away Context
Motherwell at home (8 matches) vs St Mirren away (6 matches)
0.88
Points/Game
1.00
0.50
Goals/Game
0.67
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.67
25%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Motherwell
Home form
L
L
L
L
L
Lost 5 straight at home
0.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
0/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
St Mirren
Away form
W
W
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Motherwell Wins
2
Draws
3
St Mirren Wins
0
Avg Goals
3.4
St Mirren3 – 3Motherwell
St Mirren0 – 5Motherwell
Motherwell2 – 0St Mirren
St Mirren0 – 0Motherwell
Motherwell2 – 2St Mirren
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Motherwellvs
St Mirren
Recent Scoring Profile
0.80
Goals scored / game
1.00
2.00
Goals conceded / game
1.90
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
6/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 59.9%→Latest 59.1%−0.8 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.2%→Latest 59.9%−0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?