Motherwell vs Hearts Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Fir Park
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.35
Draw
3.82
Away Win
2.11
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 2
Match Events ?
Motherwell
Hearts
24'
🟨 Malachi Walcott
29'
⚽ Claudio Rafael Soares Braga (Sabah Kerjota)
Tom Sparrow 🟨
41'
57'
🟨 Sabah Kerjota
59'
🟨 Jamie McCart
77'
🟨 Rogers Mato
Ibrahim Said 🟨
79'
Tawanda Maswanhise 🟨
81'
86'
⚽ Calvin Miller
90+3'
🟨 Yan Dhanda
Match Statistics ?
53%
Ball Possession
47%
17
Total Shots
14
5
Shots on Goal
5
6
Corner Kicks
5
15
Fouls
10
3
Yellow Cards
5
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Motherwell (4-2-3-1)
A. Paulsen
T. Sparrow
J. Girdwood-Reich
M. Moormann
M. Emmanuel
J. McGhee
D. Levitt
Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise
I. Said
J. Hodge
S. Palmer-Houlden
Hearts (4-4-2)
B. Reus
R. Mato
M. Fagan-Walcott
J. McCart
S. Kingsley
S. Kerjota
T. Magnússon
J. Altena
J. McPake
J. Wilson
Cláudio Braga
Player Ratings ?
Motherwell
M. EmmanuelD6.7
D. LevittM6.7
E. BjörgólfssonF6.6
Hearts
Cláudio BragaF8.2
B. ReusG7.6
S. KingsleyD7.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Hearts
Hearts rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Hearts a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Hearts stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Hearts stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Hearts slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Hearts stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Both sides arrive at this Scottish Premiership fixture carrying identical recent records, with Hearts having secured just one win and one draw from their last five away outings while Motherwell have managed a single victory and one draw in the same number of home matches. Motherwell have only scored in one of their last five home games and have kept two clean sheets during that same period. Hearts rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. The most recent meeting, on 9 May 2026, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 14-day comparison window, Motherwell's implied win probability has fallen by 0.9 percentage points, while Hearts's implied win probability has risen by 1.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Hearts a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Hearts
Hearts's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Hearts win as more likely than it did 14 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Motherwell win
Latest market chance 29.3%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
30.2% → 29.3%
−0.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.1% → 26.0%
−0.1 pts
Hearts win
Latest market chance 44.7%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
43.7% → 44.7%
+1.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Motherwell
Draw
Hearts
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MotherwellHearts
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
3rd
9
Games Played
9
0.89
Points/Game
1.78
1.22
Goals/Game
2.22
1.78
Conceded/Game
1.67
14.5
Shots/Game
16.6
4.9
Shots on Target
5.4
Home vs Away Context
Motherwell at home (8 matches) vs Hearts away (8 matches)
0.88
Points/Game
1.25
0.50
Goals/Game
1.50
1.50
Conceded/Game
2.50
25%
Win Rate
38%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Motherwell
Home form
W
L
L
L
L
Lost 4 straight at home
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Hearts
Away form
L
D
L
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
3.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Motherwell Wins
0
Draws
3
Hearts Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.8
Motherwell0 – 2Hearts
Motherwell1 – 1Hearts
Hearts3 – 1Motherwell
Motherwell0 – 0Hearts
Hearts3 – 3Motherwell
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Motherwellvs
Hearts
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
2.20
1.90
Goals conceded / game
2.00
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
6/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.7%→Latest 57.7%+3.0 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.6%→Latest 60.9%+3.3 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?