Motherwell vs Celtic Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Fir Park
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 12:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
4.92
Draw
4.78
Away Win
1.60
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 2
Match Events ?
Motherwell
Celtic
9'
⚽ Camilo Duran
Joe Hodge 🟨
41'
58'
⚽ Benjamin Nygren (Kasper Hogh)
82'
🟨 Kieran Tierney
85'
🟨 Jordan Lotomba
Match Statistics ?
44%
Ball Possession
56%
8
Total Shots
25
2
Shots on Goal
15
2
Corner Kicks
9
3
Fouls
4
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
12
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Motherwell (4-2-3-1)
A. Paulsen
T. Sparrow
S. O'Donnell
M. Moormann
M. Emmanuel
L. Fadinger
D. Levitt
W. Vogt
A. Lowry
J. Hodge
S. Palmer-Houlden
Celtic (4-2-3-1)
V. Sinisalo
Colby Donovan
D. Murray
L. Scales
K. Tierney
C. McGregor
M. Baur
C. Durán
B. Nygren
S. Tounekti
K. Høgh
Player Ratings ?
Motherwell
A. PaulsenG8.5
I. SaidF7.2
T. SparrowD6.8
Celtic
B. NygrenM8.2
C. DuránM8.2
L. ScalesD8.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Celtic
Celtic rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Celtic an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Celtic stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Celtic stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Celtic stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Celtic stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Celtic arrive at this Scottish Premiership fixture with an impressive away record, having secured five straight victories in their last five outings across seasons, while Motherwell have managed just one win from their last five home matches, accompanied by two draws and two defeats. At home, Motherwell have found the net in three of their last five matches but have only kept two clean sheets in that same sample. Celtic rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Celtic won the most recent meeting 3-2 on 13 May 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Motherwell's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.0 goals per meeting. Over the 14-day comparison window, Motherwell's implied win probability has risen by 4.7 percentage points, while Celtic's implied win probability has fallen by 5.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Celtic.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
6
Celtic unbeaten run
15
Celtic points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Celtic
Celtic's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Celtic win as less likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Motherwell win
Latest market chance 20.0%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
15.3% → 20.0%
+4.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 21.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
20.5% → 21.2%
+0.7 pts
Celtic win
Latest market chance 58.8%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
64.2% → 58.8%
−5.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Motherwell
Draw
Celtic
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MotherwellCeltic
Season Profile
This season
9th
League Position
2nd
7
Games Played
7
1.14
Points/Game
2.57
1.29
Goals/Game
2.00
1.57
Conceded/Game
0.57
14.5
Shots/Game
20.8
4.9
Shots on Target
8.4
Home vs Away Context
Motherwell at home (8 matches) vs Celtic away (9 matches)
0.88
Points/Game
2.33
0.50
Goals/Game
1.78
1.50
Conceded/Game
0.89
25%
Win Rate
78%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Motherwell
Home form
L
D
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Celtic
Away form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight away
1 of these match from last season.
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Motherwell Wins
1
Draws
0
Celtic Wins
4
Avg Goals
3.6
Motherwell0 – 2Celtic
Motherwell2 – 3Celtic
Celtic3 – 1Motherwell
Motherwell2 – 0Celtic
Celtic3 – 2Motherwell
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Motherwellvs
Celtic
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
2.20
1.60
Goals conceded / game
0.70
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
4/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 65.2%→Latest 65.1%−0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.1%→Latest 62.0%+5.9 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
2 of Motherwell's 10 matches and 2 of Celtic's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?