Kilmarnock vs St Johnstone Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.34
Draw
3.73
Away Win
2.93
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Kilmarnock
St Johnstone
13'
🟥 Toby Steward
Cathal McCarthy (Djenairo Daniels) ⚽
14'
35'
🟨 Jason Holt
35'
🟨 Matty Todd
Aaron Tshibola 🟨
37'
40'
⚽ Danny schmidt (Enes Alic)
Djenairo Daniels (Joe Hugill) ⚽
41'
Jamie Brandon 🟨
56'
65'
⚽ Joel Cotterill
Nicky Clescenco 🟨
83'
Match Statistics ?
63%
Ball Possession
37%
22
Total Shots
6
6
Shots on Goal
3
10
Corner Kicks
2
12
Fouls
10
3
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
1
3
Offsides
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Kilmarnock (3-4-1-2)
N. Mantl
C. McCarthy
R. Deas
G. Stanger
J. Brandon
A. Tshibola
T. Lowery
E. Ring
G. Kiltie
J. Hugill
D. Daniels
St Johnstone (3-4-2-1)
T. Steward
C. Diabate
B. Mikulić
E. Alıç
M. Todd
R. McAlear
J. Holt
J. Cotterill
T. Steven
J. Fowler
D. Schmidt
Player Ratings ?
Kilmarnock
D. DanielsF8.4
C. McCarthyD7.4
T. John-JulesF7.2
St Johnstone
D. SchmidtF7.8
J. CotterillM7.3
E. AlıçD6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Kilmarnock edge attack, St Johnstone edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
St Johnstone stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Kilmarnock slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
St Johnstone stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
St Johnstone slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
St Johnstone have recorded two wins and a draw in their last five away outings, whereas Kilmarnock sit at home with just one win and a draw from their corresponding sample of five matches. Kilmarnock have scored in three of their last five home matches but remain without a clean sheet across that same span. St Johnstone rate stronger on form and defence, with a slight advantage in head-to-head, while Kilmarnock hold a slight advantage in attack. St Johnstone won the most recent meeting 4-3 on 2 August 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Kilmarnock's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.4 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Kilmarnock's implied win probability has risen by 7.1 percentage points, while St Johnstone's implied win probability has fallen by 7.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Kilmarnock win as more likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Kilmarnock win
Latest market chance 40.7%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
33.6% → 40.7%
+7.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.5% → 26.5%
±0.0 pts
St Johnstone win
Latest market chance 32.8%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
39.9% → 32.8%
−7.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Kilmarnock
Draw
St Johnstone
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
KilmarnockSt Johnstone
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
8th
11
Games Played
11
0.73
Points/Game
1.18
1.00
Goals/Game
1.18
2.36
Conceded/Game
1.55
11.7
Shots/Game
10.5
3.9
Shots on Target
3.4
Home vs Away Context
Kilmarnock at home (6 matches) vs St Johnstone away (7 matches)
0.83
Points/Game
1.14
1.17
Goals/Game
0.86
2.50
Conceded/Game
1.43
17%
Win Rate
29%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Kilmarnock
Home form
L
L
L
D
W
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
St Johnstone
Away form
L
D
W
W
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Kilmarnock Wins
2
Draws
0
St Johnstone Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.4
St Johnstone4 – 3Kilmarnock
St Johnstone0 – 2Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock3 – 1St Johnstone
St Johnstone1 – 0Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock0 – 3St Johnstone
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Kilmarnockvs
St Johnstone
Recent Scoring Profile
0.80
Goals scored / game
1.00
2.20
Goals conceded / game
1.30
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
4/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.7%→Latest 56.6%+0.9 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.6%→Latest 60.5%+0.9 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?