Kilmarnock vs Motherwell Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.15
Draw
3.74
Away Win
2.20
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 2
Match Events ?
Kilmarnock
Motherwell
Greg Kiltie ⚽
2'
17'
⚽ Alex·Lowry
George Stanger 🟨
55'
56'
⚽ Sebastian Palmer-Houlden
Tyreece John-Jules (Jamie Brandon) ⚽
58'
Greg Kiltie (Jamie Brandon) ⚽
69'
Match Statistics ?
52%
Ball Possession
48%
16
Total Shots
16
6
Shots on Goal
7
5
Corner Kicks
3
9
Fouls
8
1
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
3
6
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Kilmarnock (4-2-3-1)
C. Ferrie
Michael-John Kamson-Kamara
C. McCarthy
G. Stanger
M. Schjønning-Larsen
B. Rice
T. Lowery
E. Ring
T. John-Jules
G. Kiltie
J. Hugill
Motherwell (4-2-3-1)
A. Paulsen
T. Sparrow
S. O'Donnell
M. Moormann
M. Emmanuel
L. Fadinger
J. Hodge
Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise
A. Lowry
I. Said
S. Palmer-Houlden
Player Ratings ?
Kilmarnock
G. KiltieM9.0
T. John-JulesM7.9
C. FerrieG7.1
Motherwell
S. Palmer-HouldenF7.3
L. FadingerM6.8
A. LowryM6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Kilmarnock edge recent form, Motherwell edge head-to-head, attack and defence are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Kilmarnock slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Motherwell stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Motherwell have secured two wins and a draw from their last five away outings, while Kilmarnock have managed just one win and a draw in five home matches. Kilmarnock have scored in three of their last five home fixtures but have failed to keep a clean sheet in that same span. Kilmarnock hold a slight advantage in form, while Motherwell rate stronger on head-to-head, while attack and defence are closely matched. Motherwell won the most recent meeting 4-0 on 24 January 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Kilmarnock's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.4 goals per meeting. Over the 14-day comparison window, Kilmarnock's implied win probability has fallen by 0.9 percentage points, while Motherwell's implied win probability has risen by 1.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Motherwell
Motherwell's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Motherwell win as more likely than it did 14 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Kilmarnock win
Latest market chance 29.9%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
30.8% → 29.9%
−0.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.3% → 26.0%
−0.3 pts
Motherwell win
Latest market chance 44.1%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
42.9% → 44.1%
+1.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Kilmarnock
Draw
Motherwell
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
KilmarnockMotherwell
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
9th
8
Games Played
8
0.63
Points/Game
1.00
0.88
Goals/Game
1.12
2.25
Conceded/Game
1.62
11.7
Shots/Game
14.5
3.9
Shots on Target
4.9
Home vs Away Context
Kilmarnock at home (6 matches) vs Motherwell away (7 matches)
0.83
Points/Game
0.86
1.17
Goals/Game
1.57
2.50
Conceded/Game
1.86
17%
Win Rate
14%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Kilmarnock
Home form
W
L
L
L
D
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Motherwell
Away form
W
W
D
L
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Kilmarnock Wins
1
Draws
1
Motherwell Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.4
Motherwell4 – 0Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock1 – 3Motherwell
Motherwell2 – 2Kilmarnock
Motherwell3 – 0Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock2 – 0Motherwell
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Kilmarnockvs
Motherwell
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.00
2.00
Goals conceded / game
1.50
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
3/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.6%→Latest 58.8%+4.2 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.0%→Latest 61.1%+3.1 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
2 of Kilmarnock's 10 matches and 1 of Motherwell's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?