Hearts vs Falkirk Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Tynecastle Park
Sun 08 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.67
Draw
4.35
Away Win
4.77
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 5
Match Events ?
Hearts
Falkirk
4'
⚽ Finley Frank Barbrook
17'
⚽ Owen Eames (Brad Spencer)
33'
⚽ Jacob Murrell (Deniss Meļņiks)
45+2'
⚽ Liam Henderson
47'
⚽ Jacob Murrell (Ethan Ross)
Severin Sabri Guendouz (Josh Mcpake) ⚽
50'
64'
🟨 Finley Frank Barbrook
65'
🟨 Owen Eames
68'
🟨 Jacob Murrell
Claudio Rafael Soares Braga ⚽ (P)
75'
78'
🟨 Calvin Fodrey
79'
🟨 Deniss Meļņiks
Leart Kabashi 🟨
79'
90+1'
🟨 Ben Parkinson
Match Statistics ?
59%
Ball Possession
41%
16
Total Shots
14
6
Shots on Goal
7
4
Corner Kicks
5
11
Fouls
20
1
Yellow Cards
6
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Hearts (4-2-3-1)
B. Reus
J. Altena
M. Fagan-Walcott
S. Findlay
J. McCart
L. Mendy
Y. Dhanda
S. Kerjota
Cláudio Braga
J. McPake
P. Kabore
Falkirk (4-2-3-1)
S. Bain
J. McMillan
L. Neilson
L. Henderson
S. Tanser
Finley Frank Barbrook
B. Spencer
D. Meļņiks
E. Ross
Owen Eames
J. Murrell
Player Ratings ?
Hearts
S. GuendouzF7.2
J. McPakeM7.2
L. KabashiF6.7
Falkirk
J. MurrellF8.4
Finley Frank BarbrookM7.8
L. HendersonD7.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Hearts edge attack and head-to-head, recent form and defence are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Hearts stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Hearts stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Hearts have been impressive at home with four wins from their last five outings, whereas Falkirk have collected two victories and two draws in that same number of away fixtures. The Tynecastle side have scored in all five of their recent home games while keeping a clean sheet twice during that span. Hearts rate stronger on attack and head-to-head, while form and defence are closely matched. Falkirk won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 15 September 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Hearts's 4, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 13-day comparison window, Hearts's implied win probability has fallen by 4.3 percentage points, while Falkirk's implied win probability has risen by 3.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Hearts unbeaten run
13
Hearts points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Hearts
Hearts's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Hearts win as less likely than it did 13 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Hearts win
Latest market chance 58.1%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
62.4% → 58.1%
−4.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
21.6% → 22.1%
+0.5 pts
Falkirk win
Latest market chance 19.7%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
15.9% → 19.7%
+3.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Hearts
Draw
Falkirk
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
HeartsFalkirk
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
4th
11
Games Played
12
1.82
Points/Game
1.50
2.18
Goals/Game
1.25
1.55
Conceded/Game
1.00
16.6
Shots/Game
11.7
5.4
Shots on Target
3.9
Home vs Away Context
Hearts at home (6 matches) vs Falkirk away (7 matches)
2.17
Points/Game
1.71
2.83
Goals/Game
1.57
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.00
67%
Win Rate
43%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Hearts
Home form
W
W
W
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
3.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Falkirk
Away form
L
D
D
W
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Hearts Wins
4
Draws
0
Falkirk Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.4
Falkirk2 – 1Hearts
Hearts3 – 0Falkirk
Hearts1 – 0Falkirk
Falkirk0 – 2Hearts
Hearts3 – 0Falkirk
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Heartsvs
Falkirk
Recent Scoring Profile
2.00
Goals scored / game
1.60
2.10
Goals conceded / game
0.80
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
0/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.7%→Latest 60.3%+3.6 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.3%→Latest 58.4%+5.1 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?