Falkirk vs Kilmarnock Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Falkirk Stadium
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.88
Draw
3.87
Away Win
3.97
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 0
Match Events ?
Falkirk
Kilmarnock
Cathal McCarthy ⚽ (OG)
29'
Jacob Murrell (Ryan Strain) ⚽
38'
46'
🟨 George Stanger
67'
🟨 Jamie Brandon
George Stanger ⚽ (OG)
68'
Match Statistics ?
63%
Ball Possession
37%
18
Total Shots
10
8
Shots on Goal
0
9
Corner Kicks
7
11
Fouls
12
0
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
7
Starting Lineups
Falkirk (4-2-3-1)
S. Bain
R. Strain
L. Neilson
L. Henderson
L. McCann
B. Spencer
Finley Frank Barbrook
E. Ross
D. Meļņiks
Owen Eames
J. Murrell
Kilmarnock (4-2-3-1)
C. Ferrie
J. Brandon
C. McCarthy
G. Stanger
M. Schjønning-Larsen
A. Tshibola
T. Lowery
E. Ring
T. John-Jules
G. Kiltie
J. Hugill
Player Ratings ?
Falkirk
J. MurrellF8.1
R. StrainD7.3
C. FodreyM6.9
Kilmarnock
C. FerrieG7.2
J. HugillF6.5
D. DanielsF6.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Falkirk edge head-to-head, Kilmarnock edge recent form and attack, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Kilmarnock slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Kilmarnock slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Falkirk stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Kilmarnock have recorded two wins and a draw in their last five away outings, whereas Falkirk have suffered four defeats in their last five home matches. At home, Falkirk have found the net in four of their last five matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same period. Kilmarnock hold a slight advantage in form and attack, while Falkirk rate stronger on head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Falkirk won the most recent meeting 5-1 on 28 February 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Kilmarnock's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 13-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Kilmarnock losing run
3
Falkirk points from last 5 matches
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 13 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Falkirk win
Latest market chance 51.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
51.1% → 51.1%
±0.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.0% → 24.4%
−0.6 pts
Kilmarnock win
Latest market chance 24.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.9% → 24.5%
+0.6 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
14 snapshots
+1+0.50−0.5Oct 11Oct 14Oct 17Oct 21Oct 24
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Falkirk
Draw
Kilmarnock
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Falkirk
Kilmarnock
Season Profile
This season
9th
League Position
11th
9
Games Played
9
1.00
Points/Game
0.89
1.00
Goals/Game
1.11
1.33
Conceded/Game
2.22
11.7
Shots/Game
11.7
3.9
Shots on Target
3.9
Home vs Away Context
Falkirk at home (7 matches) vs Kilmarnock away (8 matches)
1.71
Points/Game
0.50
1.57
Goals/Game
0.75
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.88
57%
Win Rate
12%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Falkirk
Home form
L
L
L
W
L
Lost 4 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Kilmarnock
Away form
W
L
D
W
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Falkirk Wins
3
Draws
1
Kilmarnock Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.4
2026-02-282025-2026
Falkirk5 – 1Kilmarnock
2025-12-202025-2026
Kilmarnock0 – 1Falkirk
2025-11-012025-2026
Falkirk3 – 1Kilmarnock
2010-05-082009-2010
Kilmarnock0 – 0Falkirk
2010-02-102009-2010
Falkirk0 – 1Kilmarnock
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Falkirk
vs
Kilmarnock
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.70
Goals conceded / game
2.10
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
78.9%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
57.6%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
36.4%
BTTSBoth teams score
59.2%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.7%→Latest 58.1%+3.4 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Oct 11Oct 14Oct 17Oct 21Oct 24
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 13 days before kickoff
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.1%→Latest 58.9%+2.8 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Oct 11Oct 14Oct 17Oct 21Oct 24
5 common bookmakers · first comparable 13 days before kickoff
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
1 of Falkirk's 10 matches and 1 of Kilmarnock's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?
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