Dundee vs Kilmarnock Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Dens Park
Wed 28 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.96
Draw
3.90
Away Win
3.64
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 1
Match Events ?
Dundee
Kilmarnock
Joseph Bevan (Ethan Hamilton) ⚽
32'
58'
🟨 Cathal McCarthy
75'
⚽ (P) Joe Hugill
Ashley Hay (Alan Forrest) ⚽
83'
85'
🟨 George Stanger
90+3'
🟨 Michael-John Kamson-Kamara
Ashley Hay (Owen Goodman) ⚽
90+4'
Match Statistics ?
46%
Ball Possession
54%
15
Total Shots
15
5
Shots on Goal
3
7
Corner Kicks
5
7
Fouls
13
0
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Dundee (4-4-2)
O. Goodman
D. Wright
J. Wright
R. Astley
I. Samuels
J. Bevan
C. Jones
E. Hamilton
A. Forrest
A. Hay
B. Fink
Kilmarnock (4-3-3)
N. Mantl
J. Brandon
C. McCarthy
G. Stanger
R. Deas
T. Lowery
A. Tshibola
M. Schjønning-Larsen
T. John-Jules
J. Hugill
G. Kiltie
Player Ratings ?
Dundee
A. HayF9.1
A. ForrestM7.9
E. HamiltonM7.7
Kilmarnock
G. KiltieF6.7
A. TshibolaM6.5
T. John-JulesF6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Dundee edge recent form, attack and defence, Kilmarnock edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Dundee stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Dundee stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Dundee stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Kilmarnock stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Kilmarnock have recorded just one win and a single draw from their last five away outings, whereas Dundee boast two victories alongside two draws in their corresponding home sample. Dundee have scored in all five of their recent home matches but have managed only a solitary clean sheet within that same period. Dundee rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Kilmarnock rate stronger on head-to-head. Kilmarnock won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 12 May 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Dundee's 1, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 10-day comparison window, Dundee's implied win probability has fallen by 1.0 percentage points, while Kilmarnock's implied win probability has risen by 1.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Kilmarnock losing run
56%
Dundee yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Kilmarnock win as more likely than it did 10 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Dundee remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Dundee win
Latest market chance 47.7%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
48.7% → 47.7%
−1.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.6% → 25.4%
−0.2 pts
Kilmarnock win
Latest market chance 26.9%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
25.7% → 26.9%
+1.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Dundee
Draw
Kilmarnock
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 10 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
DundeeKilmarnock
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
11th
10
Games Played
10
1.40
Points/Game
0.80
1.40
Goals/Game
1.00
1.20
Conceded/Game
2.30
12.6
Shots/Game
11.7
4.5
Shots on Target
3.9
Home vs Away Context
Dundee at home (6 matches) vs Kilmarnock away (8 matches)
1.83
Points/Game
0.50
1.83
Goals/Game
0.75
1.17
Conceded/Game
1.88
50%
Win Rate
12%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Dundee
Home form
W
L
D
W
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Kilmarnock
Away form
L
D
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Dundee Wins
1
Draws
2
Kilmarnock Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.2
Kilmarnock3 – 1Dundee
Kilmarnock2 – 2Dundee
Dundee2 – 1Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock0 – 0Dundee
Kilmarnock3 – 2Dundee
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Dundeevs
Kilmarnock
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.20
Goals conceded / game
2.30
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
1/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 57.3%→Latest 59.5%+2.2 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.1%→Latest 61.2%+2.1 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?