Celtic vs Hearts Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Celtic Park
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.58
Draw
4.91
Away Win
5.01
Match Report
Full Time
7 – 1
Match Events ?
Celtic
Hearts
Kieran Tierney (Liam Scales) ⚽
7'
Benjamin Nygren (Dane Murray) ⚽
10'
34'
🟨 Calvin Miller
Callum Osmand (Camilo Duran) ⚽
36'
Callum Osmand (Camilo Duran) ⚽
38'
41'
⚽ Laurent mendy (Josh Mcpake)
Jamie McCart ⚽ (OG)
45+1'
Jota 🟨
49'
Camilo Duran (Kieran Tierney) ⚽
49'
Mika Baur 🟨
51'
Colby Donovan 🟨
52'
Benjamin Nygren (Kasper Hogh) ⚽
83'
Match Statistics ?
48%
Ball Possession
52%
18
Total Shots
20
10
Shots on Goal
5
6
Corner Kicks
3
17
Fouls
8
3
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Celtic (4-2-3-1)
V. Sinisalo
Colby Donovan
D. Murray
L. Scales
K. Tierney
C. McGregor
M. Baur
H. Hassan
B. Nygren
C. Osmand
C. Durán
Hearts (4-4-1-1)
B. Reus
J. Altena
M. Fagan-Walcott
J. McCart
S. Kingsley
C. Miller
L. Mendy
O. McEntee
J. McPake
S. Guendouz
Cláudio Braga
Player Ratings ?
Celtic
C. DuránF9.5
B. NygrenM9.4
C. OsmandM8.8
Hearts
L. MendyM7.1
S. KerjotaF7.0
J. McPakeM6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Celtic edge recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Celtic stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Celtic slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Celtic stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Celtic slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Hearts have recorded just one win from their last five away fixtures, while Celtic boast four victories in their last five home outings. Celtic have scored in four of their last five matches at home and kept two clean sheets during that same period. Celtic rate stronger on form and defence, with a slight advantage in attack and head-to-head. Celtic won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 16 May 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Hearts's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.6 goals per meeting. Over the 14-day comparison window, Celtic's implied win probability has fallen by 5.1 percentage points, while Hearts's implied win probability has risen by 4.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
6
Celtic unbeaten run
50%
Celtic yellow cards after 75'
12
Celtic points from last 5 matches
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Celtic
Celtic's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Celtic win as less likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Celtic win
Latest market chance 59.4%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
64.5% → 59.4%
−5.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 21.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
20.7% → 21.0%
+0.3 pts
Hearts win
Latest market chance 19.6%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
14.8% → 19.6%
+4.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Celtic
Draw
Hearts
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CelticHearts
Season Profile
This season
1st
League Position
3rd
8
Games Played
8
2.63
Points/Game
2.00
2.00
Goals/Game
2.38
0.50
Conceded/Game
1.00
20.8
Shots/Game
16.6
8.4
Shots on Target
5.4
Home vs Away Context
Celtic at home (9 matches) vs Hearts away (8 matches)
2.44
Points/Game
1.25
2.67
Goals/Game
1.50
0.67
Conceded/Game
2.50
78%
Win Rate
38%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Celtic
Home form
W
W
W
L
W
Won 4 of last 5 at home
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Hearts
Away form
L
W
L
D
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Celtic Wins
2
Draws
1
Hearts Wins
2
Avg Goals
4.6
Celtic7 – 1Hearts
Celtic3 – 1Hearts
Hearts2 – 2Celtic
Celtic1 – 2Hearts
Hearts3 – 1Celtic
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Celticvs
Hearts
Recent Scoring Profile
2.50
Goals scored / game
2.10
0.50
Goals conceded / game
1.80
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
1/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 61.5%→Latest 62.4%+0.9 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.9%→Latest 59.1%+3.2 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Hearts's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?