Aberdeen vs St Mirren Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Pittodrie Stadium
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.85
Draw
3.79
Away Win
4.24
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 1
Match Events ?
Aberdeen
St Mirren
Brad Lyons (Connor Patrick Ronan) ⚽
2'
31'
🟨 Ryan Carr
42'
⚽ Eseosa Sule (Killian Phillips)
56'
🟨 Paul Nsio
Kevin Nisbet •
58'
Kevin Nisbet ⚽
58'
Ayoub Mouloua (Afeez Aremu Olalekan) ⚽
72'
Stuart Armstrong 🟨
77'
Match Statistics ?
34%
Ball Possession
66%
17
Total Shots
13
7
Shots on Goal
7
2
Corner Kicks
6
18
Fouls
16
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
0
6
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Aberdeen (4-2-3-1)
M. Müller
C. Cadden
L. Mayo
M. Knoester
N. Guinness-Walker
B. Lyons
A. Aremu
Lewis Smith
C. Ronan
T. Olusanya
K. Nisbet
St Mirren (4-4-2)
J. Chapman
C. Ramsay
A. Gogić
M. Fraser
D. John
L. Thomas
R. Carr
P. Nsio
Ismeal Kabia
Eseosa Sule
K. Phillips
Player Ratings ?
Aberdeen
M. MüllerG7.7
A. MoulouaF7.7
B. LyonsM7.6
St Mirren
Eseosa SuleF7.5
K. PhillipsF7.4
J. ChapmanG6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Aberdeen edge defence, St Mirren edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
St Mirren stronger
HomeAway
Attack
St Mirren slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Aberdeen slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
St Mirren stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
St Mirren have secured three victories from their last five away fixtures, while Aberdeen have managed just a single win and one draw in that same number of home outings. Aberdeen have found the net in just one of their last five matches at home, yet they have also kept a clean sheet on only one occasion during that identical sample. St Mirren rate stronger on form and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack, while Aberdeen hold a slight advantage in defence. St Mirren won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 12 May 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Aberdeen's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 14-day comparison window, Aberdeen's implied win probability has fallen by 0.8 percentage points, while St Mirren's implied win probability has risen by 0.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Aberdeen losing run
55%
St Mirren yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Aberdeen
Aberdeen's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Aberdeen win as less likely than it did 14 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Aberdeen win
Latest market chance 50.5%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
51.3% → 50.5%
−0.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.4% → 25.8%
+0.4 pts
St Mirren win
Latest market chance 23.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.2% → 23.7%
+0.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Aberdeen
Draw
St Mirren
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AberdeenSt Mirren
Season Profile
This season
8th
League Position
7th
8
Games Played
8
1.00
Points/Game
1.25
0.88
Goals/Game
1.00
1.12
Conceded/Game
1.75
13.2
Shots/Game
12.1
3.3
Shots on Target
3.7
Home vs Away Context
Aberdeen at home (8 matches) vs St Mirren away (6 matches)
0.88
Points/Game
1.00
0.62
Goals/Game
0.67
1.25
Conceded/Game
1.67
25%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Aberdeen
Home form
W
L
D
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
St Mirren
Away form
W
W
W
L
L
Won 3 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Aberdeen Wins
1
Draws
1
St Mirren Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.4
Aberdeen0 – 2St Mirren
St Mirren2 – 0Aberdeen
Aberdeen3 – 3St Mirren
St Mirren0 – 1Aberdeen
St Mirren1 – 0Aberdeen
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Aberdeenvs
St Mirren
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.50
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
6/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 53.1%→Latest 53.1%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.7%→Latest 55.5%+0.8 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
1 of Aberdeen's 10 matches and 2 of St Mirren's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?