Spartans vs Stranraer Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Ainslie Park
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.13
Draw
3.87
Away Win
2.75
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 2
Match Events ?
Spartans
Stranraer
12'
⚽ S. Mason (A. Traynor)
40'
🟨 Z. Bruce
55'
⚽ A. Healy (M. McLuckie)
M. McNulty 🟨
57'
S. Welsh 🟨
73'
J. Tapping 🟨
76'
77'
🟨 None
80'
🟨 D. Plank
B. Dall 🟨
81'
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Stranraer
Stranraer rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Stranraer a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Stranraer stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Stranraer slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Stranraer stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Stranraer stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Stranraer have enjoyed a solid away run with three wins from their last five outings on the road, whereas Spartans have been more cautious at home with just a solitary victory in that same span. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five matches but have not kept a clean sheet during that period. Stranraer rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. Stranraer won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 15 August 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Spartans's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Spartans's implied win probability has risen by 6.7 percentage points, while Stranraer's implied win probability has fallen by 5.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Stranraer a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Stranraer unbeaten run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Spartans
Spartans's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Spartans win as more likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Spartans win
Latest market chance 43.6%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
36.9% → 43.6%
+6.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.8%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
25.8% → 24.8%
−1.0 pts
Stranraer win
Latest market chance 31.6%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
37.2% → 31.6%
−5.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Spartans
Draw
Stranraer
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SpartansStranraer
Season Profile
This season
4th
League Position
1st
10
Games Played
10
1.50
Points/Game
2.00
2.20
Goals/Game
2.30
1.80
Conceded/Game
0.90
11.0
Shots/Game
11.1
5.4
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away Context
Spartans at home (7 matches) vs Stranraer away (6 matches)
1.29
Points/Game
2.17
2.29
Goals/Game
3.17
2.14
Conceded/Game
1.17
29%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Spartans
Home form
D
D
D
W
L
1W 3D 1L in last 5 at home
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Stranraer
Away form
L
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight away
3.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Spartans Wins
1
Draws
0
Stranraer Wins
4
Avg Goals
2.6
Stranraer1 – 0Spartans
Spartans1 – 2Stranraer
Stranraer2 – 1Spartans
Spartans0 – 4Stranraer
Stranraer0 – 2Spartans
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Spartansvs
Stranraer
Recent Scoring Profile
2.20
Goals scored / game
2.30
1.80
Goals conceded / game
0.90
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
3/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 58.7%→Latest 59.1%+0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 61.9%→Latest 61.5%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?