Kelty Hearts vs Stranraer Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
New Central Park
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
2.69
Draw
3.45
Away Win
2.36
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Kelty Hearts edge head-to-head, Stranraer edge recent form, attack and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Stranraer stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Stranraer stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Stranraer stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Kelty Hearts stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Stranraer arrive with an impressive away record of four wins and a single draw from their last five outings, while Kelty Hearts have secured three victories but suffered two defeats at home over the same period. Kelty Hearts have found the net in four of their last five matches at home yet have failed to keep a clean sheet during that identical run. Stranraer rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Kelty Hearts rate stronger on head-to-head. Stranraer won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 29 August 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Kelty Hearts's 4, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Kelty Hearts's implied win probability has risen by 3.5 percentage points, while Stranraer's implied win probability has fallen by 4.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Stranraer unbeaten run
50%
Stranraer yellow cards after 75'
13
Stranraer points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Stranraer
Stranraer's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Stranraer win as less likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Kelty Hearts win
Latest market chance 33.9%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
30.4% → 33.9%
+3.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.6% → 26.2%
+0.6 pts
Stranraer win
Latest market chance 39.9%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
44.0% → 39.9%
−4.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Kelty Hearts
Draw
Stranraer
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Kelty HeartsStranraer
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
1st
13
Games Played
13
1.38
Points/Game
2.08
1.38
Goals/Game
2.15
1.77
Conceded/Game
0.69
10.4
Shots/Game
11.1
4.8
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away Context
Kelty Hearts at home (6 matches) vs Stranraer away (6 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
2.17
1.83
Goals/Game
3.17
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.17
67%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Kelty Hearts
Home form
W
W
L
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Stranraer
Away form
D
W
W
W
W
Won 4 straight away
3.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Kelty Hearts Wins
4
Draws
0
Stranraer Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.0
Stranraer2 – 0Kelty Hearts
Stranraer0 – 3Kelty Hearts
Kelty Hearts3 – 2Stranraer
Stranraer0 – 4Kelty Hearts
Kelty Hearts1 – 0Stranraer
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Kelty Heartsvs
Stranraer
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
2.60
1.60
Goals conceded / game
0.50
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
2/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 57.8%→Latest 57.7%−0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.7%→Latest 60.9%+0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?