Kelty Hearts vs Forfar Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
New Central Park
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.03
Draw
3.37
Away Win
3.31
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Kelty Hearts
Forfar
Z. Flatman (R. Cunningham) ⚽
2'
29'
⚽ S. Shepherd (L. Perrie)
C. Flatman 🟨
31'
M. Falconer 🟨
43'
C. Hannah 🟨
44'
I. Murray (J. Hislop) ⚽
54'
I. Murray 🟨
61'
A. Ferguson 🟨
88'
G. Walker 🟥
90+3'
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Kelty Hearts edge recent form, attack and defence, Forfar edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Kelty Hearts stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Kelty Hearts stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Kelty Hearts slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Forfar stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Kelty Hearts have secured three victories from their last five outings at home, while Forfar have recorded no wins in their corresponding away fixtures over the same span. Kelty Hearts have scored in all five of their recent home matches but have failed to keep a single clean sheet during that identical period. Kelty Hearts rate stronger on form and attack, with a slight advantage in defence, while Forfar rate stronger on head-to-head. Forfar won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 1 August 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Kelty Hearts's 1, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Kelty Hearts's implied win probability has fallen by 5.8 percentage points, while Forfar's implied win probability has risen by 3.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
2
Forfar points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Kelty Hearts
Kelty Hearts's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Kelty Hearts win as less likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Kelty Hearts win
Latest market chance 45.2%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
51.0% → 45.2%
−5.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.6%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
25.0% → 27.6%
+2.6 pts
Forfar win
Latest market chance 27.2%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
24.0% → 27.2%
+3.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Kelty Hearts
Draw
Forfar
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Kelty HeartsForfar
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
8th
10
Games Played
10
1.20
Points/Game
1.10
1.40
Goals/Game
1.00
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.70
10.4
Shots/Game
8.2
4.8
Shots on Target
3.9
Home vs Away Context
Kelty Hearts at home (6 matches) vs Forfar away (7 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
0.29
1.83
Goals/Game
1.00
1.50
Conceded/Game
2.71
67%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Kelty Hearts
Home form
D
W
W
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Forfar
Away form
D
L
D
L
L
Winless in last 5 away
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Kelty Hearts Wins
1
Draws
2
Forfar Wins
2
Avg Goals
1.8
Forfar1 – 0Kelty Hearts
Kelty Hearts1 – 1Forfar
Forfar1 – 0Kelty Hearts
Kelty Hearts1 – 0Forfar
Forfar2 – 2Kelty Hearts
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Kelty Heartsvs
Forfar
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.00
2.00
Goals conceded / game
1.70
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
2/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.6%→Latest 51.8%−2.8 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.5%→Latest 55.8%−0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?