Kelty Hearts vs Elgin Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
New Central Park
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.86
Draw
3.49
Away Win
2.23
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Kelty Hearts
Elgin
A. Ferguson 🟨
3'
C. Hannah 🟨
30'
31'
🟨 K. Girvan
Z. Flatman 🟨
84'
84'
⚽ L. Mackay (R. Dingwall)
87'
🟨 None
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Elgin edge attack, defence and head-to-head, recent form is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Elgin slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Elgin slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Elgin stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Kelty Hearts have enjoyed a robust run at home with four victories from their last five outings, while Elgin have managed just two wins across that same span away from home. Kelty Hearts have found the net in all five of their recent home fixtures but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that identical period. Elgin rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack and defence, while form is closely matched. Elgin won the most recent meeting 4-1 on 15 August 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Kelty Hearts's 1, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Kelty Hearts's implied win probability has risen by 1.3 percentage points, while Elgin's implied win probability has fallen by 2.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Elgin losing run
12
Kelty Hearts points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Elgin
Elgin's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Elgin win as less likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Kelty Hearts win
Latest market chance 30.9%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
29.6% → 30.9%
+1.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.7%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
25.7% → 26.7%
+1.0 pts
Elgin win
Latest market chance 42.4%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
44.7% → 42.4%
−2.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Kelty Hearts
Draw
Elgin
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Kelty HeartsElgin
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
3rd
11
Games Played
11
1.36
Points/Game
1.64
1.45
Goals/Game
2.45
1.91
Conceded/Game
1.55
10.4
Shots/Game
11.8
4.8
Shots on Target
5.2
Home vs Away Context
Kelty Hearts at home (6 matches) vs Elgin away (6 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.67
1.83
Goals/Game
2.00
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.33
67%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Kelty Hearts
Home form
W
W
W
L
W
Won 4 of last 5 at home
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Elgin
Away form
W
D
L
L
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Kelty Hearts Wins
1
Draws
2
Elgin Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.6
Elgin4 – 1Kelty Hearts
Elgin0 – 0Kelty Hearts
Kelty Hearts4 – 0Elgin
Elgin2 – 0Kelty Hearts
Kelty Hearts1 – 1Elgin
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Kelty Heartsvs
Elgin
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
2.20
2.00
Goals conceded / game
1.70
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 58.4%→Latest 55.9%−2.5 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 61.2%→Latest 60.1%−1.1 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?