Forfar vs Elgin Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Station Park
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.27
Draw
3.40
Away Win
2.03
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Forfar
Elgin
5'
⚽ K. Hester (J. Murray)
R. Hickey 🟨
23'
38'
🟨 L. Scullion
50'
🟨 M. Gallagher
None 🟨
53'
L. Perrie (C. Wilson) ⚽
83'
85'
⚽ R. Dingwall
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Forfar edge head-to-head, Elgin edge recent form and attack, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Elgin stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Elgin stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Forfar stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Forfar arrive at home with an impressive record of four victories from five outings, while their visitors have managed just a solitary win in the same number of away fixtures. The hosts have scored in four of their last five matches at home, yet they also keep clean sheets in four of those same five outings. Elgin rate stronger on form and attack, while Forfar rate stronger on head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 8 August 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Forfar's implied win probability has risen by 2.5 percentage points, while Elgin's implied win probability has fallen by 4.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Elgin losing run
12
Forfar points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Elgin
Elgin's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Elgin win as less likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Forfar win
Latest market chance 27.8%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
25.3% → 27.8%
+2.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.2%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
24.7% → 26.2%
+1.5 pts
Elgin win
Latest market chance 46.0%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
50.0% → 46.0%
−4.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Forfar
Draw
Elgin
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ForfarElgin
Season Profile
This season
8th
League Position
4th
9
Games Played
9
1.22
Points/Game
1.56
1.00
Goals/Game
2.78
1.67
Conceded/Game
1.78
8.2
Shots/Game
11.8
3.9
Shots on Target
5.2
Home vs Away Context
Forfar at home (6 matches) vs Elgin away (6 matches)
1.67
Points/Game
1.67
1.17
Goals/Game
2.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.33
50%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Forfar
Home form
W
W
W
L
W
Won 4 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
4/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Elgin
Away form
D
W
D
L
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Forfar Wins
2
Draws
1
Elgin Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.2
Elgin1 – 1Forfar
Forfar2 – 1Elgin
Elgin2 – 0Forfar
Forfar4 – 2Elgin
Elgin2 – 1Forfar
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Forfarvs
Elgin
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
2.50
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.70
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
2/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.9%→Latest 53.7%−2.2 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.6%→Latest 56.9%−0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Forfar's 10 matches and 1 of Elgin's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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