Elgin vs Edinburgh City Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Borough Briggs
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.91
Draw
3.79
Away Win
3.30
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 0
Match Events ?
Elgin
Edinburgh City
R. Dingwall 🟨
33'
41'
🟨 L. Gardiner
52'
🟨 M. Aiken
M. Gallagher 🟨
74'
O. Colloty 🟨
80'
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Elgin edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Elgin slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Elgin slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Elgin stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Edinburgh City have secured two wins from their last five away fixtures, while Elgin boast three victories in their home sample of five matches. Elgin have scored in all five of their recent home outings but have conceded in four of those same five matches, managing just one clean sheet during this period. Elgin rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in form and attack, while defence is closely matched. Elgin won the most recent meeting 5-0 on 1 August 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Edinburgh City's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.2 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Elgin's implied win probability has fallen by 1.8 percentage points, while Edinburgh City's implied win probability has risen by 2.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Edinburgh City
Edinburgh City's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Edinburgh City win as more likely than it did 6 days ago. Elgin remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Elgin win
Latest market chance 46.5%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
48.3% → 46.5%
−1.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.2% → 25.0%
−0.2 pts
Edinburgh City win
Latest market chance 28.6%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
26.4% → 28.6%
+2.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Elgin
Draw
Edinburgh City
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ElginEdinburgh City
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
5th
10
Games Played
10
1.70
Points/Game
1.50
2.70
Goals/Game
2.00
1.70
Conceded/Game
1.80
11.8
Shots/Game
12.6
5.2
Shots on Target
6.6
Home vs Away Context
Elgin at home (7 matches) vs Edinburgh City away (7 matches)
1.57
Points/Game
1.43
2.29
Goals/Game
1.57
1.57
Conceded/Game
1.00
43%
Win Rate
29%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Elgin
Home form
D
W
W
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
3.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Edinburgh City
Away form
D
W
L
W
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Elgin Wins
4
Draws
0
Edinburgh City Wins
1
Avg Goals
4.2
Edinburgh City0 – 5Elgin
Edinburgh City0 – 3Elgin
Elgin3 – 0Edinburgh City
Edinburgh City1 – 3Elgin
Elgin2 – 4Edinburgh City
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Elginvs
Edinburgh City
Recent Scoring Profile
2.70
Goals scored / game
2.00
1.70
Goals conceded / game
1.80
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 57.0%→Latest 60.7%+3.7 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.6%→Latest 62.2%+3.6 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?