Elgin vs Dumbarton Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Borough Briggs
Sat 07 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.66
Draw
4.18
Away Win
4.10
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 2
Match Events ?
Elgin
Dumbarton
L. Mackay 🟨
11'
23'
⚽ L. McIntosh (J. Sowa)
J. Murray 🟨
42'
46'
⚽ S. Honeyman
52'
🟨 L. McIntosh
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Elgin edge recent form, attack and defence, Dumbarton edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Elgin stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Elgin stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Elgin stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Dumbarton stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Elgin have secured three victories from their last five home outings, while Dumbarton remain winless in their last five away fixtures. The hosts have scored in four of their last five home matches and have also kept two clean sheets during that same period. Elgin rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Dumbarton rate stronger on head-to-head. Dumbarton won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 5 September 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Elgin's 1, with 3 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 1-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Elgin losing run
0
Dumbarton points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 1 day before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Elgin win
Latest market chance 55.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
54.7% → 55.0%
+0.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.5% → 23.1%
−0.4 pts
Dumbarton win
Latest market chance 21.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
21.8% → 21.9%
+0.1 pts
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 1 day before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ElginDumbarton
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
8th
12
Games Played
12
1.75
Points/Game
1.08
2.33
Goals/Game
1.08
1.42
Conceded/Game
1.67
11.8
Shots/Game
8.4
5.2
Shots on Target
3.5
Home vs Away Context
Elgin at home (7 matches) vs Dumbarton away (7 matches)
1.57
Points/Game
0.43
2.29
Goals/Game
0.86
1.57
Conceded/Game
2.00
43%
Win Rate
14%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Elgin
Home form
W
W
L
W
D
Won 3 of last 5 at home
3.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Dumbarton
Away form
L
L
L
L
L
Lost 5 straight away
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Elgin Wins
1
Draws
3
Dumbarton Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.6
Dumbarton2 – 1Elgin
Elgin1 – 1Dumbarton
Dumbarton2 – 2Elgin
Elgin2 – 0Dumbarton
Dumbarton1 – 1Elgin
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Elginvs
Dumbarton
Recent Scoring Profile
2.20
Goals scored / game
1.20
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.80
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
2/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 59.0%→Latest 59.0%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.9%→Latest 58.2%−0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?