Airdrie Utd vs Hamilton Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Albert Bartlett Stadium
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.33
Draw
3.46
Away Win
1.99
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Airdrie Utd
Hamilton
24'
🟨 F. Owens
25'
🟨 S. Bannigan
D. Gallagher 🟨
27'
45'
⚽ D. Thomas (A. Comrie)
C. Ross 🟨
46'
46'
🟨 D. Thomas
J. Gentles ⚽
47'
81'
⚽ G. Crookston (S. Hendrie)
87'
🟨 C. Blues
90+2'
🟨 K. Orsi
K. Boateng 🟨
90+2'
Starting Lineups
Airdrie Utd
R. Adams
R. Tumilty
D. Gallagher
C. Ross
D. MacDonald
G. Gallagher
E. Simpson
C. Smith
L. Gibson
J. Gentles
C. Burnside
Hamilton
D. Lyness
A. Comrie
F. Owens
T. Gallacher
S. Hendrie
S. Bannigan
C. Blues
S. Bradley
K. MacDonald
S. McKinstry
A. Ryan
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Hamilton
Hamilton rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Hamilton an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Hamilton stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Hamilton stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Hamilton stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Hamilton stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Hamilton have secured three victories from their last five away outings, while Airdrie Utd have recorded two wins and two draws across their home fixtures in that same span. Airdrie Utd have found the net in four of their last five home matches, yet they managed to keep a clean sheet in only three of those same recent outings. Hamilton rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Hamilton won the most recent meeting 4-0 on 15 August 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Airdrie Utd's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.0 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Airdrie Utd's implied win probability has risen by 1.1 percentage points, while Hamilton's implied win probability has fallen by 1.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Hamilton.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Hamilton
Hamilton's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Hamilton win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Airdrie Utd win
Latest market chance 27.6%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
26.5% → 27.6%
+1.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.4% → 26.8%
+0.4 pts
Hamilton win
Latest market chance 45.7%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
47.1% → 45.7%
−1.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Airdrie Utd
Draw
Hamilton
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Airdrie UtdHamilton
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
2nd
10
Games Played
9
1.30
Points/Game
2.78
0.90
Goals/Game
2.33
1.30
Conceded/Game
0.22
8.0
Shots/Game
11.3
3.4
Shots on Target
6.0
Home vs Away Context
Airdrie Utd at home (7 matches) vs Hamilton away (8 matches)
1.14
Points/Game
1.88
0.71
Goals/Game
1.62
1.00
Conceded/Game
0.88
29%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Airdrie Utd
Home form
D
L
D
W
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Hamilton
Away form
W
D
W
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 away
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
4/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Airdrie Utd Wins
1
Draws
1
Hamilton Wins
3
Avg Goals
4.0
Hamilton4 – 0Airdrie Utd
Airdrie Utd2 – 1Hamilton
Hamilton3 – 2Airdrie Utd
Airdrie Utd0 – 4Hamilton
Hamilton2 – 2Airdrie Utd
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Airdrie Utdvs
Hamilton
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
2.20
1.30
Goals conceded / game
0.30
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
3/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 51.5%→Latest 53.3%+1.8 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.1%→Latest 56.8%+1.7 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?