Stenhousemuir vs Livingston Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Ochilview Park
Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 19:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
4.36
Draw
3.74
Away Win
1.80
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 3
Match Events ?
Stenhousemuir
Livingston
2'
⚽ S. Pittman (B. Anderson)
22'
🟨 S. May
41'
⚽ R. Muirhead (S. May)
49'
⚽ R. Muirhead (S. May)
63'
🟨 R. Muirhead
M. Bartley 🟨
78'
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Stenhousemuir edge recent form and defence, Livingston edge attack and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Stenhousemuir stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Livingston stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Stenhousemuir slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Livingston stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Livingston have secured two away victories in their last five outings, while Stenhousemuir also enjoy two wins from their home sample of five matches. At home, the hosts have found the net in three of their last five matches but have kept a clean sheet only twice during that same period. Stenhousemuir rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in defence, while Livingston rate stronger on attack and head-to-head. Stenhousemuir won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 4 September 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Livingston's 4, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Stenhousemuir's implied win probability has fallen by 1.3 percentage points, while Livingston's implied win probability has risen by 2.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
7
Stenhousemuir unbeaten run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Livingston
Livingston's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Livingston win as more likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Stenhousemuir win
Latest market chance 20.3%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
21.6% → 20.3%
−1.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.6%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
25.8% → 24.6%
−1.2 pts
Livingston win
Latest market chance 55.1%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
52.6% → 55.1%
+2.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Stenhousemuir
Draw
Livingston
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
StenhousemuirLivingston
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
6th
12
Games Played
12
1.92
Points/Game
1.42
1.08
Goals/Game
1.25
0.75
Conceded/Game
0.92
7.1
Shots/Game
11.7
3.0
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away Context
Stenhousemuir at home (9 matches) vs Livingston away (8 matches)
1.44
Points/Game
1.75
0.89
Goals/Game
1.62
1.11
Conceded/Game
0.62
44%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Stenhousemuir
Home form
W
W
L
D
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Livingston
Away form
L
L
W
W
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Stenhousemuir Wins
1
Draws
0
Livingston Wins
4
Avg Goals
2.4
Livingston0 – 1Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir0 – 1Livingston
Livingston1 – 0Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir0 – 4Livingston
Livingston4 – 1Stenhousemuir
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Stenhousemuirvs
Livingston
Recent Scoring Profile
0.80
Goals scored / game
1.30
0.90
Goals conceded / game
0.90
2/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
2/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
4/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.6%→Latest 52.7%+5.1 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 50.0%→Latest 52.8%+2.8 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?