Stenhousemuir vs Dunfermline Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Ochilview Park
Tue 27 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.83
Draw
3.24
Away Win
2.06
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Stenhousemuir
Dunfermline
L. Grant 🟨
16'
76'
⚽ R. MacLeod
M. Bartley 🟨
87'
88'
🟨 S. Kearney
90'
🟨 N. Abdulai
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Stenhousemuir edge recent form, Dunfermline edge defence and head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Stenhousemuir stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Dunfermline slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Dunfermline stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Stenhousemuir have secured four wins from their last five home outings without a single defeat, while Dunfermline have recorded two victories in their last five away fixtures alongside two draws and one loss. The hosts have found the net in five of their last five matches at home while also keeping three clean sheets from that same sample. Stenhousemuir rate stronger on form, while Dunfermline rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence, while attack is closely matched. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2016. Over the 3-day comparison window, Stenhousemuir's implied win probability has fallen by 8.4 percentage points, while Dunfermline's implied win probability has risen by 9.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
7
Stenhousemuir unbeaten run
13
Stenhousemuir points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Dunfermline
Dunfermline's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Dunfermline win as more likely than it did 3 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Stenhousemuir win
Latest market chance 25.2%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
33.6% → 25.2%
−8.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
29.0% → 28.3%
−0.7 pts
Dunfermline win
Latest market chance 46.6%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
37.4% → 46.6%
+9.2 pts
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
StenhousemuirDunfermline
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
5th
11
Games Played
11
2.09
Points/Game
1.64
1.18
Goals/Game
0.82
0.73
Conceded/Game
0.55
7.1
Shots/Game
11.7
3.0
Shots on Target
4.6
Home vs Away Context
Stenhousemuir at home (9 matches) vs Dunfermline away (10 matches)
1.44
Points/Game
1.70
0.89
Goals/Game
0.60
1.11
Conceded/Game
0.40
44%
Win Rate
40%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Stenhousemuir
Home form
W
W
W
L
D
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Dunfermline
Away form
D
W
W
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 away
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Stenhousemuir Wins
0
Draws
0
Dunfermline Wins
5
Avg Goals
3.0
Stenhousemuir0 – 1Dunfermline
Dunfermline5 – 0Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir0 – 3Dunfermline
Dunfermline1 – 0Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir0 – 5Dunfermline
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Stenhousemuirvs
Dunfermline
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
1.00
0.80
Goals conceded / game
0.40
2/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
0/10
2/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
3/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 43.4%→Latest 43.7%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 48.8%→Latest 48.8%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?