Morton vs Ayr Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Cappielow Park
Tue 01 Dec 2026 · 19:45 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
3.26
Draw
3.39
Away Win
2.20
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Morton edge recent form and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
How They Compare
Recent Form
Morton stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Morton stronger
HomeAway
Limited comparison — attack and defence data unavailable for this competition.
Match Analysis
Ayr have secured two victories and a draw in their last five away outings, whereas Morton have endured four defeats in that same span at home. Morton have found the net in four of their last five matches at home but have only kept a clean sheet once during that period. Ayr rate stronger on form and defence, while Morton rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. The most recent meeting, on 29 August 2026, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, Morton's implied win probability has risen by 1.0 percentage points, while Ayr's implied win probability has fallen by 0.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
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How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Morton
Morton's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Morton win as more likely than it did 4 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Ayr remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Morton win
Latest market chance 29.3%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
28.3% → 29.3%
+1.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.9% → 27.9%
±0.0 pts
Ayr win
Latest market chance 42.9%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
43.8% → 42.9%
−0.9 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
5 snapshots
+1+0.50−0.5Oct 20Oct 21Oct 22Oct 23Oct 24
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Morton
Draw
Ayr
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Morton
Ayr
Season Profile
This season
9th
League Position
7th
13
Games Played
13
1.00
Points/Game
1.15
1.23
Goals/Game
1.08
1.77
Conceded/Game
1.38
7.4
Shots/Game
5.4
2.7
Shots on Target
2.9
Home vs Away Context
Morton at home (7 matches) vs Ayr away (6 matches)
0.86
Points/Game
1.17
1.29
Goals/Game
1.00
1.86
Conceded/Game
1.50
29%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Morton
Home form
L
L
L
W
W
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
1.6
Goals scored
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Ayr
Away form
L
L
W
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1.0
Goals scored
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Morton Wins
1
Draws
3
Ayr Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.4
2026-08-292026-2027
Ayr1 – 1Morton
2026-03-212025-2026
Ayr0 – 1Morton
2025-12-272025-2026
Morton1 – 1Ayr
2025-10-182025-2026
Ayr2 – 1Morton
2025-08-232025-2026
Morton2 – 2Ayr
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Morton
vs
Ayr
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.50
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
2/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
71.9%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
48.2%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
28.1%
BTTSBoth teams score
53.3%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.2%→Latest 48.2%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
6 common bookmakers · first comparable 4 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.0%→Latest 53.2%+0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
6 common bookmakers · first comparable 4 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?
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