Livingston vs Arbroath Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
The Home of the Set Fare Arena
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.35
Draw
5.04
Away Win
8.16
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Livingston
Arbroath
L. Polworth 🟨
2'
45'
🟨 B. Paterson
55'
🟨 M. McKenna
67'
🟨 S. Stewart
75'
🟨 J. MacIntyre
90'
🟨 M. McKenna
90'
🟥 M. McKenna
R. McGowan ⚽
90+2'
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Livingston edge recent form, attack and defence, Arbroath edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Livingston slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Livingston stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Livingston slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Arbroath slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Arbroath have recorded just a solitary victory in their last five away outings, while Livingston have won once and drawn another in their last five home matches. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five home fixtures but have kept just one clean sheet across that same sample. Livingston rate stronger on attack, with a slight advantage in form and defence, while Arbroath hold a slight advantage in head-to-head. Arbroath won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 29 August 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Livingston's 2, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 4-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
3
Arbroath points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 4 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Livingston win
Latest market chance 68.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
68.7% → 68.6%
−0.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 19.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
19.6% → 19.5%
−0.1 pts
Arbroath win
Latest market chance 12.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
11.8% → 12.0%
+0.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Livingston
Draw
Arbroath
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
LivingstonArbroath
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
8th
11
Games Played
11
1.27
Points/Game
1.00
1.27
Goals/Game
0.64
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.55
11.7
Shots/Game
3.9
3.6
Shots on Target
2.1
Home vs Away Context
Livingston at home (7 matches) vs Arbroath away (7 matches)
1.43
Points/Game
0.43
1.29
Goals/Game
0.29
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.00
43%
Win Rate
14%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Livingston
Home form
W
L
D
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Arbroath
Away form
W
L
L
L
L
Lost 4 straight away
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Livingston Wins
2
Draws
2
Arbroath Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.2
Arbroath1 – 0Livingston
Arbroath1 – 1Livingston
Livingston1 – 0Arbroath
Arbroath2 – 2Livingston
Livingston2 – 1Arbroath
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Livingstonvs
Arbroath
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
0.70
1.10
Goals conceded / game
1.50
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
4/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.5%→Latest 55.6%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 47.2%→Latest 47.0%−0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?