Inverness C vs Stenhousemuir Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Tulloch Caledonian Stadium
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.95
Draw
3.54
Away Win
3.80
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 0
Match Events ?
Inverness C
Stenhousemuir
A. Mackinnon (L. Sole) ⚽
26'
C. MacLeod (A. Stewart) ⚽
35'
39'
🟨 L. Grant
43'
🟨 R. Meechan
A. Stewart 🟨
61'
S. Kellacher 🟨
68'
K. Smith 🟨
68'
73'
🟨 M. Anderson
89'
🟨 H. Kargbo
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir rate stronger in recent form, defence and head-to-head; Inverness C edge attack, giving Stenhousemuir a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Stenhousemuir stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Inverness C slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Stenhousemuir stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Stenhousemuir stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Stenhousemuir have enjoyed a solid away run with three wins and no defeats in their last four outings, while Inverness C have recorded two wins and two draws from five home matches before suffering a loss. Inverness C have found the net in three of their last five home matches, though they have managed just two clean sheets from that same sample. Stenhousemuir rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while Inverness C hold a slight advantage in attack. Stenhousemuir won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 29 August 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Inverness C's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Inverness C's implied win probability has fallen by 3.6 percentage points, while Stenhousemuir's implied win probability has risen by 2.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Stenhousemuir a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
53%
Inverness C yellow cards after 75'
10
Stenhousemuir points from last 4 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Inverness C
Inverness C's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Inverness C win as less likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Inverness C win
Latest market chance 48.8%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
52.4% → 48.8%
−3.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.0%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
26.0% → 27.0%
+1.0 pts
Stenhousemuir win
Latest market chance 24.1%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
21.6% → 24.1%
+2.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Inverness C
Draw
Stenhousemuir
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Inverness CStenhousemuir
Season Profile
This season
8th
League Position
1st
8
Games Played
8
1.25
Points/Game
2.75
1.12
Goals/Game
1.50
1.12
Conceded/Game
0.25
8.6
Shots/Game
7.1
4.0
Shots on Target
3.0
Home vs Away Context
Inverness C at home (7 matches) vs Stenhousemuir away (7 matches)
1.71
Points/Game
1.43
1.14
Goals/Game
1.14
0.57
Conceded/Game
1.43
43%
Win Rate
43%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Inverness C
Home form
W
D
D
L
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Stenhousemuir
Away form
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight away
Limited history — only 4 away fixtures on record for Stenhousemuir.
1.25
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.25
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/4
Scored in
last 4
last 4
3/4
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Inverness C Wins
0
Draws
2
Stenhousemuir Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.4
Stenhousemuir3 – 1Inverness C
Stenhousemuir1 – 1Inverness C
Inverness C1 – 1Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir1 – 0Inverness C
Inverness C1 – 2Stenhousemuir
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Inverness Cvs
Stenhousemuir
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.33
1.20
Goals conceded / game
0.33
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
1/9
6/10
Both Teams Scored
2/9
3/10
Failed to Score
1/9
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 46.1%→Latest 45.7%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 48.6%→Latest 49.7%+1.1 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Stenhousemuir have only 9 completed fixtures on record.
1 of Inverness C's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?