Inverness C vs Arbroath Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Tulloch Caledonian Stadium
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.47
Draw
4.27
Away Win
6.72
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 0
Match Events ?
Inverness C
Arbroath
C. MacLeod ⚽
39'
A. Bavidge (P. Allan) ⚽
42'
P. Allan (P. Allan) •
59'
67'
🟨 M. McKenna
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Inverness C
Inverness C rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; Arbroath edge head-to-head, giving Inverness C a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Inverness C stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Inverness C stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Inverness C stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Arbroath stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Arbroath arrive with a difficult away record of just one win from their last five outings, whereas Inverness C have secured two victories and two draws in the same number of home fixtures. The hosts have found the net in three of their last five home matches while also keeping three clean sheets during that identical recent run. Inverness C rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Arbroath rate stronger on head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 8 August 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Inverness C's implied win probability has risen by 2.9 percentage points, while Arbroath's implied win probability has fallen by 1.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Inverness C a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Inverness C
Inverness C's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Inverness C win as more likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Inverness C win
Latest market chance 61.8%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
58.9% → 61.8%
+2.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.2%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
24.3% → 23.2%
−1.1 pts
Arbroath win
Latest market chance 15.0%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
16.7% → 15.0%
−1.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Inverness C
Draw
Arbroath
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Inverness CArbroath
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
8th
10
Games Played
10
1.30
Points/Game
1.10
1.20
Goals/Game
0.70
1.10
Conceded/Game
1.50
8.6
Shots/Game
3.9
4.0
Shots on Target
2.1
Home vs Away Context
Inverness C at home (7 matches) vs Arbroath away (7 matches)
1.71
Points/Game
0.43
1.14
Goals/Game
0.29
0.57
Conceded/Game
2.00
43%
Win Rate
14%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Inverness C
Home form
D
D
L
W
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Arbroath
Away form
L
W
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Inverness C Wins
1
Draws
1
Arbroath Wins
3
Avg Goals
1.8
Arbroath0 – 0Inverness C
Inverness C3 – 0Arbroath
Arbroath3 – 0Inverness C
Inverness C0 – 2Arbroath
Arbroath1 – 0Inverness C
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Inverness Cvs
Arbroath
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
0.70
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.50
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
2/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.5%→Latest 49.9%+1.4 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 47.4%→Latest 46.9%−0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?