Dunfermline vs Livingston Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
East End Park
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.55
Draw
3.46
Away Win
2.68
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 0
Match Events ?
Dunfermline
Livingston
A. Tod 🟨
2'
11'
🟨 E. Danso
43'
🟨 B. van Hoeven
64'
🟨 S. Pittman
82'
🟨 T. Sinclair
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Dunfermline edge recent form and defence, Livingston edge attack, head-to-head is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Dunfermline stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Livingston slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Dunfermline stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Livingston have recorded three victories from their last five away fixtures, while Dunfermline secured two wins and two draws in their home outings over the same span. At home, Dunfermline have found the net in three of their last five matches while also keeping three clean sheets during that identical period. Dunfermline rate stronger on form and defence, while Livingston hold a slight advantage in attack, while head-to-head is closely matched. Livingston won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 22 August 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Dunfermline's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.6 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Dunfermline's implied win probability has risen by 1.8 percentage points, while Livingston's implied win probability has fallen by 1.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Dunfermline
Dunfermline's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Dunfermline win as more likely than it did 6 days ago. Livingston remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Dunfermline win
Latest market chance 35.7%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
33.9% → 35.7%
+1.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.7% → 27.6%
−0.1 pts
Livingston win
Latest market chance 36.8%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
38.4% → 36.8%
−1.6 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
7 snapshots
+2+10−1Oct 11Oct 13Oct 14Oct 15Oct 17
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Dunfermline
Draw
Livingston
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Dunfermline
Livingston
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
4th
8
Games Played
10
1.63
Points/Game
1.30
0.88
Goals/Game
1.40
0.62
Conceded/Game
1.10
11.7
Shots/Game
11.7
4.6
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away Context
Dunfermline at home (7 matches) vs Livingston away (8 matches)
1.86
Points/Game
1.75
1.57
Goals/Game
1.62
0.57
Conceded/Game
0.62
43%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Dunfermline
Home form
D
D
W
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Livingston
Away form
W
L
L
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Dunfermline Wins
2
Draws
1
Livingston Wins
2
Avg Goals
1.6
2026-08-222026-2027
Livingston2 – 0Dunfermline
2025-04-022024-2025
Dunfermline1 – 0Livingston
2025-02-152024-2025
Livingston0 – 0Dunfermline
2024-10-292024-2025
Dunfermline3 – 0Livingston
2024-08-032024-2025
Livingston2 – 0Dunfermline
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Dunfermline
vs
Livingston
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
1.40
0.60
Goals conceded / game
1.10
0/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
75.0%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
52.7%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
33.0%
BTTSBoth teams score
57.6%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.5%→Latest 52.7%+0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.4%→Latest 57.4%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
Match Poll
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