Ayr vs Partick Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Somerset Park
Fri 16 Oct 2026 · 19:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
4.77
Draw
3.89
Away Win
1.68
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Ayr
Partick
35'
🟨 O. Smyth
45'
⚽ (P) O. Smyth
L. McBeth 🟨
56'
57'
🟨 S. Drozd
75'
🟨 L. Ashcroft
90'
🟨 T. Letsosa
90+1'
🟨 A. Fitzpatrick
S. McMann 🟨
90+3'
90+3'
🟨 B. McPherson
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Partick
Partick rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Partick a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Partick stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Partick stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Partick stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Partick stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Partick have secured two wins from their last five away outings, while Ayr have managed just a single victory in their corresponding home sample. Ayr have scored in four of their last five home matches but have only kept one clean sheet during that same period. Partick rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Partick won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 5 September 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Ayr's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 5-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison gives Partick a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Partick
Partick's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Partick win as more likely than it did 5 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Ayr win
Latest market chance 21.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
22.0% → 21.6%
−0.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.9%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
25.8% → 24.9%
−0.9 pts
Partick win
Latest market chance 53.5%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
52.3% → 53.5%
+1.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Ayr
Draw
Partick
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AyrPartick
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
3rd
10
Games Played
9
1.20
Points/Game
2.00
1.00
Goals/Game
1.11
1.10
Conceded/Game
0.33
5.4
Shots/Game
11.7
2.9
Shots on Target
4.6
Home vs Away Context
Ayr at home (8 matches) vs Partick away (9 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
2.00
1.00
Goals/Game
1.00
1.25
Conceded/Game
0.56
25%
Win Rate
56%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Ayr
Home form
W
D
L
L
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Partick
Away form
W
D
L
D
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Ayr Wins
0
Draws
2
Partick Wins
3
Avg Goals
1.8
Partick1 – 0Ayr
Ayr1 – 1Partick
Partick2 – 1Ayr
Ayr0 – 0Partick
Partick2 – 1Ayr
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Ayrvs
Partick
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.10
Goals conceded / game
0.40
2/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
2/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
3/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 51.3%→Latest 53.3%+2.0 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.1%→Latest 54.6%+1.5 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?