Ayr vs Dunfermline Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Somerset Park
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.25
Draw
3.29
Away Win
2.26
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Ayr
Dunfermline
39'
🟨 A. Amade
54'
⚽ (P) J. Cooper
K. Holt (O. Whyte) ⚽
58'
58'
🟨 O. Adams
R. Lyon 🟨
62'
O. Whyte 🟨
82'
83'
🟨 O. Shaw
90+2'
🟨 D. Lobban
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Dunfermline edge recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Dunfermline stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Dunfermline stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Dunfermline stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Dunfermline stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Dunfermline have enjoyed a mixed run away from home with two wins and two draws in their last five outings, while Ayr have struggled at this venue with just one win and three defeats over the same span. Ayr have found the net in three of their last five home matches but have only managed a single clean sheet in that identical period. Dunfermline rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 8 August 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Ayr's implied win probability has fallen by 1.5 percentage points, while Dunfermline's implied win probability has risen by 1.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Ayr
Ayr's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Ayr win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. Dunfermline remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Ayr win
Latest market chance 29.2%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
30.7% → 29.2%
−1.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.4% → 28.7%
+0.3 pts
Dunfermline win
Latest market chance 42.1%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
40.9% → 42.1%
+1.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Ayr
Draw
Dunfermline
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AyrDunfermline
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
5th
9
Games Played
7
1.22
Points/Game
1.71
1.00
Goals/Game
0.86
1.11
Conceded/Game
0.57
5.4
Shots/Game
11.7
2.9
Shots on Target
4.6
Home vs Away Context
Ayr at home (8 matches) vs Dunfermline away (10 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
1.70
1.00
Goals/Game
0.60
1.25
Conceded/Game
0.40
25%
Win Rate
40%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Ayr
Home form
L
W
D
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Dunfermline
Away form
D
L
D
W
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Ayr Wins
2
Draws
1
Dunfermline Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.4
Dunfermline1 – 1Ayr
Ayr0 – 3Dunfermline
Dunfermline2 – 3Ayr
Ayr0 – 1Dunfermline
Dunfermline0 – 1Ayr
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Ayrvs
Dunfermline
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
0.80
1.10
Goals conceded / game
0.50
2/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
0/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
4/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.1%→Latest 47.1%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.7%→Latest 52.7%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
1 of Ayr's 10 matches and 1 of Dunfermline's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?