Arbroath vs Ayr Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Gayfield Park
Sat 07 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.06
Draw
3.16
Away Win
2.46
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 1
Match Events ?
Arbroath
Ayr
16'
🟨 B. Summers
T. O'Brien (M. McKenna) ⚽
19'
M. McKenna ⚽
23'
B. Paterson 🟨
31'
C. Watson 🟨
64'
G. Reilly (K. Magennis) ⚽
77'
J. MacIntyre ⚽
83'
87'
⚽ K. Shanks
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Statistical Comparison
Ayr stronger
Ayr rate stronger across every available category. They lead recent form and head-to-head. The overall statistical comparison rates Ayr stronger.
Leads 2 of 2 major categories
How They Compare
Recent Form
Ayr stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Ayr stronger
HomeAway
Limited comparison — attack and defence data unavailable for this competition.
Match Analysis
While Ayr have secured two victories from their last five away outings, Arbroath mirror that exact tally of two wins in their most recent five home fixtures. Arbroath have found the net in four of their last five matches at home but have only managed a solitary clean sheet during that same period. Ayr rate stronger on form and head-to-head. Ayr won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 1 August 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Arbroath's 0, with 3 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 6-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The statistical comparison rates Ayr stronger overall.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 6 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Arbroath win
Latest market chance 32.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
32.2% → 32.0%
−0.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
29.7% → 29.6%
−0.1 pts
Ayr win
Latest market chance 38.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
38.1% → 38.4%
+0.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Arbroath
Draw
Ayr
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ArbroathAyr
Season Profile
This season
8th
League Position
7th
13
Games Played
12
0.85
Points/Game
1.25
0.54
Goals/Game
1.08
1.69
Conceded/Game
1.17
3.9
Shots/Game
5.4
2.1
Shots on Target
2.9
Home vs Away Context
Arbroath at home (7 matches) vs Ayr away (6 matches)
1.57
Points/Game
1.17
1.29
Goals/Game
1.00
1.29
Conceded/Game
1.50
43%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Arbroath
Home form
W
D
W
L
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Ayr
Away form
D
L
L
W
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Arbroath Wins
0
Draws
3
Ayr Wins
2
Avg Goals
1.8
Ayr2 – 0Arbroath
Ayr1 – 0Arbroath
Arbroath1 – 1Ayr
Ayr1 – 1Arbroath
Arbroath1 – 1Ayr
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Arbroathvs
Ayr
Recent Scoring Profile
0.50
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.90
Goals conceded / game
1.20
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
6/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 44.7%→Latest 44.7%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 50.8%→Latest 50.8%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?