Sp Lisbon vs Moreirense Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estádio José Alvalade
Sat 07 Nov 2026 · 20:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.15
Draw
8.77
Away Win
15.67
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Sp Lisbon
Moreirense
Luis Suárez (Issa Doumbia) ⚽
61'
Match Statistics ?
71%
Ball Possession
29%
19
Total Shots
9
5
Shots on Goal
2
8
Corner Kicks
4
10
Fouls
8
0
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Sp Lisbon (4-3-3)
Kaique
Iván Fresneda
Eduardo Quaresma
Gonçalo Inácio
M. Araújo
S. Andersen
Sergi Altimira
I. Doumbia
Luis Guilherme
L. Suárez
N. Irankunda
Moreirense (4-2-3-1)
André Ferreira
Dinis Pinto
Gilberto Batista
Kevyn Monteiro
Álvaro Martínez
N. John
Guilherme Liberato
Chipyoka Songa
Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
Landerson
L. Vonić
Player Ratings ?
Sp Lisbon
L. SuárezF8.1
I. DoumbiaM7.7
Iván FresnedaD7.4
Moreirense
Kevyn MonteiroD7.0
André FerreiraG6.9
Leandro Henrique Sousa SantosD6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Sp Lisbon
Sp Lisbon rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Sp Lisbon a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Sp Lisbon stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Sp Lisbon stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Sp Lisbon stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Sp Lisbon stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
While Sp Lisbon have secured two victories from their last five home outings, Moreirense have recorded two wins in their corresponding away sample over the same period. Sp Lisbon have found the net in every single home match of their last five games but have managed just one clean sheet from that same run. Sp Lisbon rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Sp Lisbon won the most recent meeting 3-0 on 21 February 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Moreirense's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Sp Lisbon's implied win probability has risen by 1.2 percentage points, while Moreirense's implied win probability has fallen by 0.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Sp Lisbon a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Sp Lisbon unbeaten run
48%
Sp Lisbon yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Sp Lisbon
Sp Lisbon's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Sp Lisbon win as more likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Sp Lisbon win
Latest market chance 81.8%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
80.6% → 81.8%
+1.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 12.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
12.5% → 12.1%
−0.4 pts
Moreirense win
Latest market chance 6.1%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
6.9% → 6.1%
−0.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Sp Lisbon
Draw
Moreirense
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Sp LisbonMoreirense
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
9th
10
Games Played
10
2.10
Points/Game
1.40
2.30
Goals/Game
1.30
1.10
Conceded/Game
1.70
15.7
Shots/Game
8.7
5.8
Shots on Target
2.9
Home vs Away Context
Sp Lisbon at home (7 matches) vs Moreirense away (6 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.17
2.00
Goals/Game
1.00
1.29
Conceded/Game
1.50
57%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Sp Lisbon
Home form
W
W
D
D
L
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Moreirense
Away form
L
W
L
D
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Sp Lisbon Wins
4
Draws
0
Moreirense Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.0
Moreirense0 – 3Sp Lisbon
Sp Lisbon3 – 0Moreirense
Sp Lisbon3 – 1Moreirense
Moreirense2 – 1Sp Lisbon
Moreirense0 – 2Sp Lisbon
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Sp Lisbonvs
Moreirense
Recent Scoring Profile
2.30
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.00
Goals conceded / game
1.30
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
0/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 66.5%→Latest 66.2%−0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 46.6%→Latest 44.8%−1.8 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?