Sp Braga vs Sp Lisbon Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estádio Municipal de Braga
Fri 09 Oct 2026 · 20:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.10
Draw
3.27
Away Win
2.47
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 3
Match Events ?
Sp Braga
Sp Lisbon
Rui Silva ⚽ (OG)
41'
66'
⚽ Luis Suárez (Nestory Irankunda)
71'
⚽ (OG) Bernardo Caltabiano Parise Fontes
82'
⚽ Rodrigo Zalazar (Geny Catamo)
Sergio Barcia 🟨
89'
89'
🟨 Flávio Gonçalves
Match Statistics ?
49%
Ball Possession
51%
15
Total Shots
9
4
Shots on Goal
3
5
Corner Kicks
2
11
Fouls
10
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Sp Braga (3-4-2-1)
Bernardo Fontes
Sergio Barcia
Vitor Carvalho
A. Bajrami
Víctor Gómez
J. Gorby
João Moutinho
Gabriel Silva
D. Huseinbašić
Ricardo Horta
Pau Victor
Sp Lisbon (4-3-3)
Rui Silva
Iván Fresneda
Eduardo Quaresma
Gonçalo Inácio
G. Vagiannidis
S. Andersen
Sergi Altimira
I. Doumbia
Geny Catamo
F. Ioannidis
N. Irankunda
Player Ratings ?
Sp Braga
Vitor CarvalhoD6.8
João MoutinhoM6.6
J. WindF6.6
Sp Lisbon
L. SuárezF8.2
R. ZalazarM7.2
Eduardo QuaresmaD7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Sp Lisbon
Sp Lisbon rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; defence is closely matched, giving Sp Lisbon a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Sp Lisbon stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Sp Lisbon stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Sp Lisbon stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Sp Lisbon have enjoyed a solid away run with two wins and three draws from their last five outings, while Sp Braga remain unbeaten at home with three victories and two draws in that same span. At the Luz, Sp Braga have found the net in all five of their recent home matches but have also kept three clean sheets during that period. Sp Lisbon rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 7 March 2026, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.8 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Sp Braga's implied win probability has risen by 2.4 percentage points, while Sp Lisbon's implied win probability has fallen by 3.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Sp Lisbon a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Sp Lisbon
Sp Lisbon's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Sp Lisbon win as less likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Sp Braga win
Latest market chance 31.0%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
28.6% → 31.0%
+2.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.4%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
28.0% → 29.4%
+1.4 pts
Sp Lisbon win
Latest market chance 39.6%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
43.4% → 39.6%
−3.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Sp Braga
Draw
Sp Lisbon
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Sp BragaSp Lisbon
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
3rd
6
Games Played
7
1.83
Points/Game
2.14
1.17
Goals/Game
2.43
0.83
Conceded/Game
1.14
14.2
Shots/Game
15.7
4.0
Shots on Target
5.8
Home vs Away Context
Sp Braga at home (7 matches) vs Sp Lisbon away (6 matches)
1.71
Points/Game
2.33
1.29
Goals/Game
2.50
1.14
Conceded/Game
0.83
57%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Sp Braga
Home form
D
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Sp Lisbon
Away form
D
W
D
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Sp Braga Wins
0
Draws
3
Sp Lisbon Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.8
Sp Braga2 – 2Sp Lisbon
Sp Lisbon1 – 1Sp Braga
Sp Lisbon1 – 1Sp Braga
Sp Braga2 – 4Sp Lisbon
Sp Lisbon5 – 0Sp Braga
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Sp Bragavs
Sp Lisbon
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
2.60
1.00
Goals conceded / game
1.10
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
1/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.4%→Latest 45.4%−3.0 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.3%→Latest 51.9%−1.4 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
3 of Sp Braga's 10 matches and 2 of Sp Lisbon's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?