Rio Ave vs Nacional Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estádio dos Arcos
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 15:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.25
Draw
3.29
Away Win
3.52
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 2
Match Events ?
Rio Ave
Nacional
32'
⚽ N. Kader (Chico Gonçalves)
Sebastian Clemensen ⚽
39'
João Tomé Baptista 🟨
50'
João Tomé Baptista 🟥
54'
Diogo Bezerra (Sebastian Clemensen) ⚽
57'
59'
⚽ N. Kader
Jalen Blesa ⚽ (P)
72'
Jalen Blesa 🟨
73'
Roland Galcik 🟨
90+1'
Match Statistics ?
56%
Ball Possession
44%
11
Total Shots
12
7
Shots on Goal
5
8
Corner Kicks
8
7
Fouls
17
2
Yellow Cards
0
1
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
3
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Rio Ave (4-2-3-1)
Vitor Hugo
João Tomé
A. Ntoi
Gustavo Mancha
M. Vrousai
M. Patricio
G. Liavas
S. Clemmensen
M. Sellouki
Diogo Bezerra
J. Blesa
Nacional (4-2-3-1)
Renato Bellucci
Deivison
Francisco Gonçalves
Zé Vitor
W. Kokolo
C. Labidi
D. Dongmo
Daniel Júnior
Matchoi Djaló
Song Min-Kyu
N. Kader
Player Ratings ?
Rio Ave
S. ClemmensenM8.4
J. BlesaF7.3
Diogo BezerraM7.0
Nacional
N. KaderF8.5
Francisco GonçalvesD6.8
A. ObandoF6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Rio Ave edge recent form, Nacional edge head-to-head, attack and defence are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Rio Ave slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Nacional stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Nacional have recorded just one win and one draw from their last five away outings, while Rio Ave remain winless at home with two draws in that same span. Rio Ave have found the net in three of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that period. Rio Ave hold a slight advantage in form, while Nacional rate stronger on head-to-head, while attack and defence are closely matched. Nacional won the most recent meeting 4-0 on 25 January 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Rio Ave's 2, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.6 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Rio Ave's implied win probability has risen by 1.3 percentage points, while Nacional's implied win probability has fallen by 0.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
70%
Rio Ave yellow cards after 75'
2
Rio Ave points from last 5 matches
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Rio Ave
Rio Ave's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Rio Ave win as more likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Rio Ave win
Latest market chance 42.8%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
41.5% → 42.8%
+1.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.3%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
29.1% → 28.3%
−0.8 pts
Nacional win
Latest market chance 28.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
29.4% → 28.9%
−0.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Rio Ave
Draw
Nacional
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Rio AveNacional
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
15th
7
Games Played
7
0.57
Points/Game
0.57
0.71
Goals/Game
1.00
2.14
Conceded/Game
2.14
7.6
Shots/Game
10.8
3.2
Shots on Target
3.3
Home vs Away Context
Rio Ave at home (7 matches) vs Nacional away (5 matches)
0.71
Points/Game
0.20
1.29
Goals/Game
0.80
2.71
Conceded/Game
1.80
14%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Rio Ave
Home form
L
L
L
D
D
Winless in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
3.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Nacional
Away form
W
L
D
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Rio Ave Wins
2
Draws
2
Nacional Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.6
Nacional4 – 0Rio Ave
Rio Ave1 – 1Nacional
Nacional3 – 3Rio Ave
Rio Ave2 – 1Nacional
Nacional1 – 2Rio Ave
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Rio Avevs
Nacional
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
1.00
2.00
Goals conceded / game
2.20
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
6/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 45.5%→Latest 46.5%+1.0 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 51.3%→Latest 52.0%+0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
1 of Rio Ave's 10 matches and 1 of Nacional's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?