Rio Ave vs Famalicao Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estádio dos Arcos
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.82
Draw
3.31
Away Win
2.10
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 4
Match Events ?
Rio Ave
Famalicao
Vasco César Freire de Seabra 🟨
40'
Miguel Patricío 🟨
42'
48'
⚽ Roméo Beney (Rodrigo Pinheiro)
Jose Carlos Teixeira Lopes Reis Goncalves 🟨
80'
80'
⚽ Pedro Santos (Marcos Vinicios Lopes Moura)
85'
⚽ Óscar Aranda Subiela (Pedro Santos)
Francisco Petrasso 🟨
90+3'
90+5'
⚽ (P) Óscar Aranda Subiela
Match Statistics ?
58%
Ball Possession
42%
7
Total Shots
12
2
Shots on Goal
5
4
Corner Kicks
2
21
Fouls
15
3
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Rio Ave (4-2-3-1)
Vitor Hugo
João Tomé
F. Petrasso
A. Ntoi
M. Vrousai
Diogo Nascimento
G. Liavas
S. Clemmensen
M. Patricio
Diogo Bezerra
J. Blesa
Famalicao (4-2-3-1)
L. Carević
Rodrigo Pinheiro
Víctor Rofino
L. Realpe
Gustavo Garcia
T. van de Looi
Tamás Szücs
R. Beney
Mathias De Amorim
Sorriso
G. Koutsias
Player Ratings ?
Rio Ave
A. NtoiD6.7
G. LiavasM6.7
Diogo NascimentoM6.6
Famalicao
R. BeneyM8.2
Óscar ArandaF8.1
SorrisoM7.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Famalicao
Famalicao rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Famalicao a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Famalicao stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Famalicao slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Famalicao stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Famalicao stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Famalicao have recorded two wins from their last five away outings, while Rio Ave have secured just a single victory in their last five home matches. Rio Ave have found the net in three of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same period. Famalicao rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. The most recent meeting, on 1 March 2026, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 1.2 goals per meeting. Over the 13-day comparison window, Rio Ave's implied win probability has risen by 2.5 percentage points, while Famalicao's implied win probability has fallen by 3.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Famalicao a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Famalicao
Famalicao's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Famalicao win as less likely than it did 13 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Rio Ave win
Latest market chance 25.4%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
22.9% → 25.4%
+2.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.3%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
27.0% → 28.3%
+1.3 pts
Famalicao win
Latest market chance 46.3%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
50.1% → 46.3%
−3.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Rio Ave
Draw
Famalicao
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Rio AveFamalicao
Season Profile
This season
15th
League Position
14th
8
Games Played
8
0.88
Points/Game
0.88
1.00
Goals/Game
1.25
2.12
Conceded/Game
1.38
7.6
Shots/Game
10.0
3.2
Shots on Target
3.4
Home vs Away Context
Rio Ave at home (7 matches) vs Famalicao away (7 matches)
0.71
Points/Game
1.57
1.29
Goals/Game
2.14
2.71
Conceded/Game
1.00
14%
Win Rate
43%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Rio Ave
Home form
L
L
D
D
W
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Famalicao
Away form
D
L
D
W
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Rio Ave Wins
0
Draws
3
Famalicao Wins
2
Avg Goals
1.2
Rio Ave0 – 0Famalicao
Famalicao0 – 0Rio Ave
Famalicao1 – 0Rio Ave
Rio Ave1 – 1Famalicao
Famalicao2 – 1Rio Ave
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Rio Avevs
Famalicao
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
1.50
2.10
Goals conceded / game
1.50
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
6/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.8%→Latest 45.7%−3.1 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.0%→Latest 51.1%−0.9 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?