Nacional vs Sp Braga Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estádio da Madeira
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
5.95
Draw
4.21
Away Win
1.57
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Nacional
Sp Braga
Miguel Baeza (Song Min-kyu) ⚽
19'
Chico Gonçalves 🟨
33'
79'
🟨 Sergio Barcia
Stavros Gavriel 🟨
86'
90+4'
🟨 Gustaf Lagerbielke
Match Statistics ?
29%
Ball Possession
71%
8
Total Shots
20
4
Shots on Goal
2
4
Corner Kicks
6
18
Fouls
12
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Nacional (5-4-1)
Renato Bellucci
M. Jensen
Francisco Gonçalves
Matheus Dias
Zé Vitor
W. Kokolo
S. Gavriel
C. Labidi
Miguel Baeza
Song Min-Kyu
N. Kader
Sp Braga (3-4-2-1)
Bernardo Fontes
G. Lagerbielke
Sergio Barcia
B. Arrey-Mbi
Víctor Gómez
J. Gorby
Tomás Marqués
Gabriel Silva
Pau Victor
Ricardo Horta
J. Milošević
Player Ratings ?
Nacional
Miguel BaezaM8.0
Song Min-KyuM7.0
Matheus DiasD6.9
Sp Braga
João MoutinhoM7.0
B. Arrey-MbiD6.9
Víctor GómezM6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Sp Braga
Sp Braga rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Sp Braga a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Sp Braga stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Sp Braga slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Sp Braga stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Sp Braga stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Sp Braga have secured just a solitary victory in their last five away fixtures across multiple campaigns, while Nacional have suffered five consecutive defeats at home during this current season. Nacional have found the net in three of their last five home outings but have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of those same matches. Sp Braga rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. Sp Braga won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 28 February 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Nacional's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 13-day comparison window, Nacional's implied win probability has risen by 1.4 percentage points, while Sp Braga's implied win probability has fallen by 2.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Sp Braga a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4/5
One-goal H2H results
50%
Sp Braga yellow cards after 75'
0
Nacional points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Sp Braga
Sp Braga's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Sp Braga win as less likely than it did 13 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Nacional win
Latest market chance 15.9%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
14.5% → 15.9%
+1.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.6%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
22.3% → 23.6%
+1.3 pts
Sp Braga win
Latest market chance 60.5%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
63.2% → 60.5%
−2.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Nacional
Draw
Sp Braga
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
NacionalSp Braga
Season Profile
This season
17th
League Position
9th
8
Games Played
8
0.50
Points/Game
1.38
1.12
Goals/Game
1.12
2.25
Conceded/Game
1.25
10.8
Shots/Game
14.2
3.3
Shots on Target
4.0
Home vs Away Context
Nacional at home (9 matches) vs Sp Braga away (6 matches)
1.33
Points/Game
1.33
1.00
Goals/Game
1.00
1.89
Conceded/Game
1.00
44%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Nacional
Home form
L
L
L
L
L
Lost 5 straight at home
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
3.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Sp Braga
Away form
D
D
W
L
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Nacional Wins
1
Draws
0
Sp Braga Wins
4
Avg Goals
2.2
Nacional1 – 2Sp Braga
Sp Braga0 – 1Nacional
Sp Braga1 – 0Nacional
Nacional0 – 3Sp Braga
Nacional1 – 2Sp Braga
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Nacionalvs
Sp Braga
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
1.10
2.50
Goals conceded / game
1.30
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
4/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 51.2%→Latest 50.8%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 47.3%→Latest 48.5%+1.2 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?