Moreirense vs Gil Vicente Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas
Fri 09 Oct 2026 · 18:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.54
Draw
3.15
Away Win
2.31
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Moreirense
Gil Vicente
17'
🟨 Ricardo Esgaio
56'
🟨 Andreas Lausen
Manuel Mendonça 🟨
60'
70'
🟨 Gil Pinto Martins
71'
🟨 Mohamed Kaba
Gilberto Batista 🟨
75'
Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga 🟨
88'
90'
⚽ (P) Walace França
Match Statistics ?
38%
Ball Possession
62%
12
Total Shots
13
2
Shots on Goal
3
4
Corner Kicks
3
12
Fouls
14
3
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Moreirense (4-2-3-1)
André Ferreira
Dinis Pinto
Gilberto Batista
Maracás
Kiko
N. John
Guilherme Liberato
Kiko Bondoso
Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
Tiago Andrade
L. Vonić
Gil Vicente (4-2-3-1)
Lucão
Ricardo Esgaio
M. Elimbi Gilbert
Jonathan Buatu
David Moreira
A. Lausen
Diogo Ferreira Prioste
Murilo
Santi García
Gil Pinto Martins
Héctor Hernández
Player Ratings ?
Moreirense
Guilherme LiberatoM7.0
Dinis PintoD6.9
KikoD6.8
Gil Vicente
WalaceF7.8
MuriloM7.2
M. Elimbi GilbertD7.1
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Moreirense edge recent form and attack, Gil Vicente edge defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Moreirense slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Moreirense stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Gil Vicente stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Gil Vicente stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Gil Vicente have secured just three draws and suffered two defeats in their last five away outings, whereas Moreirense have recorded two wins alongside two draws from their most recent five home matches. Moreirense have found the net in three of their last five home fixtures but have conceded goals in four of those same outings, managing just a solitary clean sheet during that period. Moreirense rate stronger on attack, with a slight advantage in form, while Gil Vicente rate stronger on defence and head-to-head. Gil Vicente won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 7 February 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Moreirense's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Moreirense's implied win probability has risen by 0.8 percentage points, while Gil Vicente's implied win probability has fallen by 0.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4/5
One-goal H2H results
3
Gil Vicente points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Gil Vicente
Gil Vicente's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Gil Vicente win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Moreirense win
Latest market chance 27.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.5% → 27.7%
+0.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 30.5%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
29.6% → 30.5%
+0.9 pts
Gil Vicente win
Latest market chance 41.8%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
42.9% → 41.8%
−1.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Moreirense
Draw
Gil Vicente
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MoreirenseGil Vicente
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
9th
7
Games Played
6
1.14
Points/Game
1.33
1.14
Goals/Game
0.83
2.00
Conceded/Game
0.83
8.7
Shots/Game
13.4
2.9
Shots on Target
3.4
Home vs Away Context
Moreirense at home (7 matches) vs Gil Vicente away (6 matches)
1.43
Points/Game
2.17
1.43
Goals/Game
1.17
1.57
Conceded/Game
0.83
43%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Moreirense
Home form
D
D
L
W
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Gil Vicente
Away form
D
D
L
D
L
Winless in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Moreirense Wins
2
Draws
0
Gil Vicente Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.4
Moreirense1 – 2Gil Vicente
Gil Vicente2 – 0Moreirense
Gil Vicente0 – 1Moreirense
Moreirense3 – 2Gil Vicente
Moreirense0 – 1Gil Vicente
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Moreirensevs
Gil Vicente
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
0.70
1.70
Goals conceded / game
1.20
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
4/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 40.7%→Latest 39.8%−0.9 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 47.2%→Latest 46.4%−0.8 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of Moreirense's 10 matches and 3 of Gil Vicente's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?