Moreirense vs Estrela Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 15:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.92
Draw
3.28
Away Win
2.58
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Moreirense
Estrela
19'
🟨 Santiago Serra
Landerson Costa Araújo (Manuel Mendonça) ⚽
50'
57'
⚽ Lovro Zvonarek
Nile John (Tiago Andrade) ⚽
90+5'
Match Statistics ?
52%
Ball Possession
48%
11
Total Shots
11
4
Shots on Goal
1
3
Corner Kicks
3
10
Fouls
15
0
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
4
Offsides
3
0
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Moreirense (4-2-3-1)
André Ferreira
Dinis Pinto
Gilberto Batista
Kevyn Monteiro
Kiko
N. John
Guilherme Liberato
Landerson
Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
Tiago Andrade
L. Vonić
Estrela (4-2-3-1)
Léo Linck
M. Scholze
Patrick Luan
S. Leković
L. Mincarelli Davin
K. Höög Jansson
Santiago Serra
A. Marcus
L. Zvonarek
I. Stoica
L. Antonetti
Player Ratings ?
Moreirense
N. JohnM7.9
Gilberto BatistaD7.6
LandersonM7.5
Estrela
L. ZvonarekM7.4
Patrick LuanD6.9
S. LekovićD6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Moreirense edge recent form and head-to-head, Estrela edge attack, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Moreirense stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Estrela stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Moreirense stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Estrela have recorded just one win from their last five away outings, while Moreirense have suffered three defeats in their last five home matches. Moreirense have scored in only two of their last five matches at this venue and have failed to keep a clean sheet during that period. Moreirense rate stronger on form and head-to-head, while Estrela rate stronger on attack, while defence is closely matched. Moreirense won the most recent meeting 3-2 on 2 May 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Estrela's 1, with 3 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Moreirense's implied win probability has risen by 1.6 percentage points, while Estrela's implied win probability has fallen by 1.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Estrela
Estrela's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Estrela win as less likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Moreirense win
Latest market chance 33.3%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
31.7% → 33.3%
+1.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.7% → 28.9%
+0.2 pts
Estrela win
Latest market chance 37.7%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
39.6% → 37.7%
−1.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Moreirense
Draw
Estrela
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MoreirenseEstrela
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
12th
9
Games Played
9
1.22
Points/Game
1.11
1.22
Goals/Game
1.56
1.78
Conceded/Game
1.89
8.7
Shots/Game
12.6
2.9
Shots on Target
3.9
Home vs Away Context
Moreirense at home (7 matches) vs Estrela away (6 matches)
1.43
Points/Game
1.00
1.43
Goals/Game
2.00
1.57
Conceded/Game
2.17
43%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Moreirense
Home form
L
W
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Estrela
Away form
D
W
D
D
L
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Moreirense Wins
1
Draws
3
Estrela Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.8
Moreirense3 – 2Estrela
Estrela0 – 0Moreirense
Moreirense1 – 1Estrela
Estrela2 – 1Moreirense
Moreirense2 – 2Estrela
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Moreirensevs
Estrela
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.60
Goals conceded / game
2.00
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
4/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.4%→Latest 48.1%−0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.6%→Latest 53.9%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?