Guimaraes vs Porto Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estádio D. Afonso Henriques
Sun 08 Nov 2026 · 18:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
5.47
Draw
4.23
Away Win
1.61
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Guimaraes
Porto
Tiago Miguel Carvalho Margarido 🟨
19'
Toni Borevković 🟨
33'
João Mendes 🟨
33'
38'
⚽ Borja Sainz (Alberto Costa)
38'
🟨 Borja Sainz
43'
🟨 Pablo Rosario
67'
🟨 Hwang In-Beom
Alan de Souza Guimarães (Gustavo Silva) ⚽
77'
86'
⚽ Martim Fernandes (Eduardo Gabriel Aquino Cossa)
90+7'
🟨 Alan Gonzalo Varela
Match Statistics ?
47%
Ball Possession
53%
16
Total Shots
12
6
Shots on Goal
4
4
Corner Kicks
5
13
Fouls
11
2
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
7
2
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Guimaraes (4-2-3-1)
Lucas Furtado
T. Strata
T. Borevković
A. Sidibé
João Mendes
Gonçalo Nogueira
Beni
O. Camara
Samu
Gustavo
A. Jakupovic
Porto (4-3-3)
Diogo Costa
Alberto Baio
J. Bednarek
J. Kiwior
Z. Sanusi
Victor Mow Froholdt
P. Rosario
Gabri Veiga
Pepê Aquino
Samu
Borja Sainz
Player Ratings ?
Guimaraes
AlanM7.9
GustavoM6.8
Miguel NogueiraF6.7
Porto
Borja SainzF7.6
Diogo CostaG7.5
Martim FernandesD7.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Porto
Porto rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Porto an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Porto stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Porto stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Porto stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Porto stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Porto have arrived at this fixture with a perfect away record in their last five outings, while Guimaraes have managed to remain unbeaten at home during the same span with three victories and two draws. At home, Guimaraes have found the net in four of their last five matches yet have also kept four clean sheets in that identical sample. Porto rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Porto won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 18 January 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Guimaraes's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Guimaraes's implied win probability has fallen by 0.5 percentage points, while Porto's implied win probability has risen by 0.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Porto.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
10
Porto unbeaten run
15
Porto points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Porto
Porto's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Porto win as more likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Guimaraes win
Latest market chance 17.1%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
18.6% → 17.1%
−1.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.1%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
24.4% → 23.1%
−1.3 pts
Porto win
Latest market chance 59.8%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
57.0% → 59.8%
+2.8 pts
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
GuimaraesPorto
Season Profile
This season
13th
League Position
1st
10
Games Played
10
0.90
Points/Game
3.00
1.00
Goals/Game
2.50
1.00
Conceded/Game
0.40
16.8
Shots/Game
16.3
4.5
Shots on Target
6.5
Home vs Away Context
Guimaraes at home (7 matches) vs Porto away (9 matches)
1.57
Points/Game
3.00
1.86
Goals/Game
2.33
0.57
Conceded/Game
0.56
43%
Win Rate
100%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Guimaraes
Home form
W
D
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
4/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Porto
Away form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight away
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Guimaraes Wins
1
Draws
1
Porto Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.4
Guimaraes0 – 1Porto
Porto3 – 0Guimaraes
Porto1 – 1Guimaraes
Guimaraes0 – 3Porto
Porto1 – 2Guimaraes
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Guimaraesvs
Porto
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
2.70
0.80
Goals conceded / game
0.60
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
4/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.8%→Latest 51.2%+0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 51.1%→Latest 50.0%−1.1 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?