Guimaraes vs Maritimo Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estádio D. Afonso Henriques
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 20:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.68
Draw
3.82
Away Win
5.33
Match Report
Full Time
5 – 0
Match Events ?
Guimaraes
Maritimo
Gustavo Silva 🟨
12'
Gonçalo Nogueira 🟨
17'
Toni Borevković 🟨
22'
36'
🟨 Raphael Guzzo
36'
🟨 Tomas Tavares
Arnel Jakupović ⚽
38'
Paulo Henrique ⚽ (OG)
48'
Oumar Camara ⚽
60'
62'
🟨 Rodri Andrade
Fábio Samuel Amorim Silva 🟨
63'
Arnel Jakupović (Fábio Samuel Amorim Silva) ⚽
76'
Yeimar Mosquera (Alan de Souza Guimarães) ⚽
90'
Match Statistics ?
58%
Ball Possession
42%
16
Total Shots
10
8
Shots on Goal
2
6
Corner Kicks
5
15
Fouls
11
4
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
6
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Guimaraes (4-2-3-1)
Lucas Furtado
T. Strata
T. Borevković
A. Sidibé
João Mendes
Gonçalo Nogueira
Beni
O. Camara
Samu
Gustavo
A. Jakupovic
Maritimo (4-2-3-1)
Fran Vieites
Igor Julião
Romain Correia
G. Szalai
Paulo Henrique
Rodrigo Andrade
Raphael Guzzo
Tomás Tavares
M. Dominguez
Martín Tejón
Adrián Butzke
Player Ratings ?
Guimaraes
A. JakupovicF8.6
O. CamaraM8.2
Y. MosqueraD7.8
Maritimo
M. BassouaminaF6.7
Maurice Osei BoakyeF6.5
M. DiouriF6.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Guimaraes edge defence and head-to-head, Maritimo edge recent form, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Maritimo stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Guimaraes stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Guimaraes stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Maritimo arrive at this away fixture with a difficult run of form, having recorded no wins from their last five outings on the road, while Guimaraes have managed just one victory in their own last five matches at home. At home, Guimaraes have found the net in only two of their last five matches and have kept a clean sheet on just two occasions during that same recent spell. Maritimo rate stronger on form, while Guimaraes rate stronger on defence and head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Guimaraes won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 29 April 2023, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Maritimo's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.6 goals per meeting. Over the 11-day comparison window, Guimaraes's implied win probability has risen by 2.8 percentage points, while Maritimo's implied win probability has fallen by 1.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Maritimo losing run
4/5
One-goal H2H results
2
Maritimo points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Guimaraes
Guimaraes's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Guimaraes win as more likely than it did 11 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Guimaraes win
Latest market chance 57.2%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
54.4% → 57.2%
+2.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.1%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
26.1% → 25.1%
−1.0 pts
Maritimo win
Latest market chance 17.7%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
19.5% → 17.7%
−1.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Guimaraes
Draw
Maritimo
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 11 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
GuimaraesMaritimo
Season Profile
This season
15th
League Position
11th
8
Games Played
8
0.63
Points/Game
1.00
0.62
Goals/Game
1.12
1.25
Conceded/Game
1.75
16.8
Shots/Game
10.7
4.5
Shots on Target
3.4
Home vs Away Context
Guimaraes at home (7 matches) vs Maritimo away (8 matches)
1.57
Points/Game
0.62
1.86
Goals/Game
0.88
0.57
Conceded/Game
2.62
43%
Win Rate
12%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Guimaraes
Home form
L
L
W
D
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Maritimo
Away form
L
L
L
D
D
Winless in last 5 away
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Guimaraes Wins
4
Draws
1
Maritimo Wins
0
Avg Goals
1.6
Maritimo1 – 2Guimaraes
Guimaraes1 – 0Maritimo
Maritimo0 – 1Guimaraes
Guimaraes2 – 1Maritimo
Maritimo0 – 0Guimaraes
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Guimaraesvs
Maritimo
Recent Scoring Profile
0.60
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.40
Goals conceded / game
2.00
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
9/10
5/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 46.1%→Latest 47.7%+1.6 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 48.0%→Latest 48.0%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Guimaraes's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?