Estrela vs Casa Pia Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio Jose Gomes
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 15:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.73
Draw
3.81
Away Win
4.94
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 2
Match Events ?
Estrela
Casa Pia
31'
⚽ João Rego (Mohamed Salah El Boukammiri)
68'
🟨 Patrick Sequeira
90+2'
⚽ Lawrence Ofori (Henrique Araújo)
Jefferson Encada 🟨
90+4'
90+4'
🟨 Pedro Rosas
Match Statistics ?
63%
Ball Possession
37%
18
Total Shots
10
6
Shots on Goal
4
7
Corner Kicks
5
13
Fouls
13
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Estrela (4-5-1)
Léo Linck
M. Scholze
Patrick Luan
S. Leković
Rafa Soares
A. Marcus
L. Zvonarek
Santiago Serra
Eddy Doue
I. Stoica
L. Antonetti
Casa Pia (4-2-3-1)
P. Sequeira
Geraldes
Kaly
David Sousa
Pedro Rosas
L. Ofori
S. Pérez
M. El Boukammiri
João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo
B. Pauwels
Cassiano
Player Ratings ?
Estrela
Patrick LuanD7.1
S. LekovićD6.9
A. MarcusM6.7
Casa Pia
L. OforiM8.2
João Pedro Seno Luís RêgoM8.2
P. SequeiraG8.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Estrela edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Estrela stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Estrela stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Estrela stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Casa Pia have secured two victories and a draw in their last five away fixtures, though they have also suffered two defeats during that span, while Estrela have managed just one win alongside three draws and a solitary loss across their most recent five home outings. Estrela have found the net in three of their last five matches at home but have only managed to keep a clean sheet once during that same period. Estrela rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Estrela won the most recent meeting 4-0 on 20 March 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Casa Pia's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.6 goals per meeting. Over the 12-day comparison window, Estrela's implied win probability has risen by 2.8 percentage points, while Casa Pia's implied win probability has fallen by 1.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Estrela
Estrela's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Estrela win as more likely than it did 12 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Estrela win
Latest market chance 53.5%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
50.7% → 53.5%
+2.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.8%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
27.1% → 25.8%
−1.3 pts
Casa Pia win
Latest market chance 20.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
22.2% → 20.6%
−1.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Estrela
Draw
Casa Pia
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
EstrelaCasa Pia
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
17th
8
Games Played
8
1.25
Points/Game
0.50
1.75
Goals/Game
0.38
1.88
Conceded/Game
2.12
12.6
Shots/Game
10.0
3.9
Shots on Target
2.8
Home vs Away Context
Estrela at home (7 matches) vs Casa Pia away (7 matches)
0.71
Points/Game
1.57
1.14
Goals/Game
1.00
2.00
Conceded/Game
0.71
14%
Win Rate
43%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Estrela
Home form
D
D
D
W
L
1W 3D 1L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Casa Pia
Away form
W
L
L
D
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Estrela Wins
3
Draws
0
Casa Pia Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.6
Estrela4 – 0Casa Pia
Casa Pia3 – 5Estrela
Casa Pia1 – 0Estrela
Estrela0 – 1Casa Pia
Estrela3 – 1Casa Pia
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Estrelavs
Casa Pia
Recent Scoring Profile
1.90
Goals scored / game
0.40
2.00
Goals conceded / game
2.20
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
2/10
Failed to Score
7/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.7%→Latest 49.5%+1.8 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 50.5%→Latest 51.2%+0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Estrela's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?