Estrela vs Benfica Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio Jose Gomes
Sun 08 Nov 2026 · 20:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
11.63
Draw
7.15
Away Win
1.22
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 3
Match Events ?
Estrela
Benfica
26'
⚽ Gianluca Prestianni (Claudio Echeverri)
Lovro Zvonarek (Rafa Soares) ⚽
48'
50'
🟨 Marco Alexandre Saraiva da Silva
Lovro Zvonarek 🟨
51'
Pedro Miguel Marques da Costa Filipe 🟨
53'
68'
⚽ (OG) Bernardo Schappo
Leandro Antonetti (Joan Jordan) ⚽
76'
Alisson Souza 🟨
89'
90+4'
⚽ Vangelis Pavlidis (Andreas Schjelderup)
Match Statistics ?
38%
Ball Possession
62%
7
Total Shots
15
2
Shots on Goal
5
1
Corner Kicks
10
15
Fouls
12
2
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
0
Starting Lineups
Estrela (4-2-3-1)
Léo Linck
M. Scholze
Patrick Luan
Bernardo Schappo
Rafa Soares
K. Höög Jansson
Santiago Serra
A. Marcus
L. Zvonarek
I. Stoica
L. Antonetti
Benfica (4-2-3-1)
Samuel Soares
A. Bah
Tomás Araújo
C. Lenglet
S. Dahl
H. Sudakov
João Palhinha
Rafa
C. Echeverri
G. Prestianni
V. Pavlidis
Player Ratings ?
Estrela
L. AntonettiF7.2
L. ZvonarekM7.1
M. ScholzeD6.8
Benfica
V. PavlidisF8.2
G. PrestianniM8.1
C. EcheverriM7.1
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Benfica
Benfica rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Benfica a strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Benfica stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Benfica stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Benfica stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Benfica stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Benfica have secured four wins from their last five away fixtures, while Estrela have managed just a single victory in five home outings. Estrela have scored in only two of their last five home matches and have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same period. Benfica rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Benfica won the most recent meeting 4-0 on 25 January 2026, having won 5 of the last 5 encounters to Estrela's 0, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Estrela's implied win probability has risen by 1.2 percentage points, while Benfica's implied win probability has fallen by 1.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Benfica a strong edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Benfica unbeaten run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
12
Benfica points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Benfica
Benfica's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Benfica win as less likely than it did 5 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Estrela win
Latest market chance 8.1%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
6.9% → 8.1%
+1.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 14.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
14.5% → 14.8%
+0.3 pts
Benfica win
Latest market chance 77.2%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
78.6% → 77.2%
−1.4 pts
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
EstrelaBenfica
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
2nd
10
Games Played
10
1.00
Points/Game
2.50
1.50
Goals/Game
2.70
1.90
Conceded/Game
0.80
12.6
Shots/Game
18.3
3.9
Shots on Target
6.1
Home vs Away Context
Estrela at home (7 matches) vs Benfica away (7 matches)
0.71
Points/Game
2.57
1.14
Goals/Game
3.14
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.00
14%
Win Rate
86%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Estrela
Home form
D
W
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight at home
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Benfica
Away form
W
W
L
W
W
Won 4 of last 5 away
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Estrela Wins
0
Draws
0
Benfica Wins
5
Avg Goals
3.2
Benfica4 – 0Estrela
Estrela0 – 1Benfica
Estrela2 – 3Benfica
Benfica1 – 0Estrela
Estrela1 – 4Benfica
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Estrelavs
Benfica
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
2.10
2.00
Goals conceded / game
0.70
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
4/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 66.0%→Latest 66.3%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 48.2%→Latest 50.5%+2.3 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?