Casa Pia vs Sp Lisbon Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior
Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 20:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
9.93
Draw
5.77
Away Win
1.30
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 2
Match Events ?
Casa Pia
Sp Lisbon
David Sousa 🟨
9'
13'
⚽ Pedro Lima Barros (Iván Fresneda)
Domingos José Gabriel Bandeira 🟨
20'
29'
🟨 Silas Andersen
90+3'
🟨 Maximiliano Araujo
90+4'
⚽ Geny Catamo (Iván Fresneda)
Match Statistics ?
45%
Ball Possession
55%
12
Total Shots
23
2
Shots on Goal
11
3
Corner Kicks
4
11
Fouls
15
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
2
9
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Casa Pia (4-2-3-1)
P. Sequeira
Geraldes
Kaly
David Sousa
Pedro Rosas
S. Pérez
L. Ofori
M. El Boukammiri
João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo
B. Pauwels
Henrique Araújo
Sp Lisbon (4-2-3-1)
Kaique
Iván Fresneda
Eduardo Quaresma
Gonçalo Inácio
M. Araújo
Sergi Altimira
S. Andersen
Luis Guilherme
Pedro Lima
N. Irankunda
L. Suárez
Player Ratings ?
Casa Pia
P. SequeiraG8.4
David SousaD6.9
João Pedro Seno Luís RêgoM6.7
Sp Lisbon
Iván FresnedaD8.9
Pedro LimaM8.2
Geny CatamoM7.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Sp Lisbon
Sp Lisbon rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Sp Lisbon a strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Sp Lisbon stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Sp Lisbon stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Sp Lisbon stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Sp Lisbon stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Sp Lisbon have enjoyed a solid away run with three wins and two draws from their last five outings, while Casa Pia have suffered five straight defeats at home during the same period. Casa Pia have found the net in just two of their last five home matches and have failed to keep a clean sheet in that same span. Sp Lisbon rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Sp Lisbon won the most recent meeting 3-0 on 16 January 2026, having won 5 of the last 5 encounters to Casa Pia's 0, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.8 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, Casa Pia's implied win probability has risen by 1.8 percentage points, while Sp Lisbon's implied win probability has fallen by 3.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Sp Lisbon a strong edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Sp Lisbon unbeaten run
48%
Sp Lisbon yellow cards after 75'
0
Casa Pia points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Sp Lisbon
Sp Lisbon's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Sp Lisbon win as less likely than it did 4 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Casa Pia win
Latest market chance 10.2%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
8.4% → 10.2%
+1.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 17.3%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
15.3% → 17.3%
+2.0 pts
Sp Lisbon win
Latest market chance 72.5%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
76.3% → 72.5%
−3.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Casa Pia
Draw
Sp Lisbon
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Casa PiaSp Lisbon
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
3rd
9
Games Played
9
0.78
Points/Game
2.00
0.56
Goals/Game
2.33
1.89
Conceded/Game
1.22
10.0
Shots/Game
15.7
2.8
Shots on Target
5.8
Home vs Away Context
Casa Pia at home (7 matches) vs Sp Lisbon away (6 matches)
0.00
Points/Game
2.33
0.29
Goals/Game
2.50
2.86
Conceded/Game
0.83
0%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Casa Pia
Home form
L
L
L
L
L
Lost 5 straight at home
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Sp Lisbon
Away form
D
W
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 away
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Casa Pia Wins
0
Draws
0
Sp Lisbon Wins
5
Avg Goals
3.8
Sp Lisbon3 – 0Casa Pia
Casa Pia0 – 2Sp Lisbon
Casa Pia1 – 3Sp Lisbon
Sp Lisbon2 – 0Casa Pia
Sp Lisbon8 – 0Casa Pia
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Casa Piavs
Sp Lisbon
Recent Scoring Profile
0.80
Goals scored / game
2.40
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.20
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
5/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 61.6%→Latest 58.1%−3.5 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 45.2%→Latest 47.7%+2.5 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?